eXp World Holdings (EXPI) Plummets 12.6%: What's Fueling the Selloff?

Summary
• eXp World Holdings (EXPI) fell 12.6% intraday to $9.42, its lowest level since May 2024.
• Q2 earnings missed estimates by $0.10/share, with adjusted EBITDA declining and agent count dropping 5% year-over-year.
• A $17M antitrust settlement and 20% operating expense growth compounded near-term concerns.

Today’s sharp decline in EXPI reflects a confluence of operational underperformance and macroeconomic headwinds. The stock traded between $9.02 and $10.46, signaling a breakdown below critical support levels. Investors are now weighing whether this selloff is a buying opportunity or a deeper bearish signal.

Earnings Disappointment and Strategic Overhead Spark Flight to Safety
eXp World Holdings’ 15.4% intraday plunge stems from a Q2 earnings report that exposed structural weaknesses. While the company highlighted sequential agent count growth and international expansion, the $0.01/share loss—versus $0.09 expected—triggered panic. Margins contracted by 40 basis points as agents reached productivity caps, and a $17M litigation payment exacerbated cash flow concerns. The 5% agent count decline, despite strategic investments in AI and automation, underscored a disconnect between growth initiatives and profitability. Short sellers capitalized on the bearish catalysts, accelerating the selloff.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on Volatility and Bollinger Band Breakdowns
• 200-day MA: 10.708 (above); RSI: 59.65 (neutral); MACD: 0.467 (bullish); Bollinger Bands: Lower bound at $9.18 (oversold).

The technicals suggest EXPI is testing its 52W low of $6.9, with RSI hovering near neutral territory. The stock’s current price of $9.42 sits just 25 cents above the Bollinger Band lower bound, indicating potential for a rebound. However, the -55.6x P/E ratio and -12.6% intraday move highlight extreme bearish sentiment. For aggressive traders, the EXPI20250815P10 put option and EXPI20250919C10 call offer strategic exposure.

• EXPI20250815P10 (Put Option)
- Code: EXPI20250815P10
- Strike Price: $10
- Expiration: 2025-08-15
- IV: 69.77% (high volatility)
- Delta: -0.644 (deep in-the-money)
- Gamma: 0.280 (high sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0036 (slow decay)
- Turnover: 4,924 (liquid)
- LVR: 10.43% (moderate leverage)
- Payoff at 5% downside (9.42 → 8.95): $1.05 per contract. This put offers asymmetric upside if EXPI breaks below $9.18, with strong gamma to amplify gains on further declines.

• EXPI20250919C10 (Call Option)
- Code: EXPI20250919C10
- Strike Price: $10
- Expiration: 2025-09-19
- IV: 41.82% (moderate volatility)
- Delta: 0.377 (moderate directional bias)
- Gamma: 0.261 (high sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0070 (modest decay)
- Turnover: 10,740 (high liquidity)
- LVR: 26.81% (strong leverage)
- Payoff at 5% upside (9.42 → 9.89): $0.89 per contract. This call is ideal for a rebound scenario, leveraging high gamma to capitalize on a bounce above $10.46.

Trade Hook: Aggressive bulls may target EXPI20250919C10 into a retest of $10.46, while bears should monitor EXPI20250815P10 for a breakdown below $9.18.

Backtest eXp World Holdings Stock Performance
The backtest of EXPI's performance after a -13% intraday plunge shows mixed results. While the 3-day win rate is 48.39%, indicating a higher probability of a positive return in the short term, the 10-day win rate is lower at 45.97%, and the 30-day win rate is 47.58%, suggesting that the medium-term performance is more volatile. The maximum return during the backtest period was 1.71%, which occurred on day 59, indicating that while there is a chance of a recovery, the overall performance in the days following the plunge is generally muted.

Bullish Catalysts vs. Bearish Fundamentals: What to Watch Now
The near-term trajectory of EXPI hinges on three key factors: 1) Whether international revenue growth can offset U.S. market stagnation, 2) If AI-driven productivity gains materialize before Q3, and 3) The resolution of the antitrust litigation’s impact on cash reserves. Technically, a break below $9.18 would validate the bear case, while a retest of $10.46 could spark a short-covering rally. For context, sector leader Zillow (Z) is down 1.27%, signaling broader real estate tech fragility. Investors should watch for a $9.18 breakdown or a $10.46 retest—either could define the next leg of this volatile move.