Expedia's Volatile Descent: What's Fueling the 3.3% Intraday Slide?

Summary
• Expedia (EXPE) plunges 3.33% to $289.99, breaking below its 52-week low of $130.01
• Intraday range widens to $281.45–$299.515, signaling heightened volatility
• Sector leader Booking Holdings (BKNG) declines 2.05%, amplifying travel sector jitters

Expedia’s sharp intraday selloff has ignited market speculation, with the stock trading at its lowest level since early 2025. The move coincides with broader travel sector turbulence, as visa processing freezes and antitrust scrutiny weigh on investor sentiment. With technical indicators flashing mixed signals and options volatility spiking, the path forward for EXPE remains fraught with uncertainty.

Visa Freeze and Antitrust Scrutiny Weigh on Travel Giant
Expedia’s intraday collapse stems from a dual threat: a U.S. visa processing freeze disrupting international travel demand and a Chinese antitrust probe targeting Trip.com, a key competitor. The visa freeze has already triggered a 5% decline in travel bookings, while Trip.com’s investigation—focused on alleged monopolistic practices—has spooked investors about regulatory risks across the sector. Compounding these fundamentals, technical indicators like the 3-day pivot top and bearish MACD divergence (8.66 vs. 9.08 signal line) have accelerated the sell-off. Analysts at Zacks and BMO have downgraded the stock, citing near-term overhangs.

Travel Sector Turbulence: Booking Holdings Drags as Expedia Falters
The travel sector is under pressure, with Booking Holdings (BKNG) down 2.05% as of 20:38 ET. While BKNG’s decline is milder than EXPE’s 3.33% drop, both stocks reflect broader industry headwinds. The sector’s vulnerability is amplified by recent bankruptcies at Great Little Escapes and Tango Travel, which have eroded consumer confidence in travel platforms. Expedia’s premium valuation (24.5x P/E) contrasts with BKNG’s more defensive positioning, making EXPE’s selloff more pronounced in this risk-off environment.

Options Playbook: High-Leverage Puts and Calls for Volatile EXPE
• 200-day MA: $207.08 (far below current price)
• RSI: 60.9 (neutral but trending lower)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $289.99, near lower band ($277.33)
• MACD Histogram: -0.42 (bearish divergence)

Key levels to monitor include the 30D support at $285 and the 200D support at $166.27. With the RSI hovering near 60 and the MACD signaling bearish momentum, short-term volatility is likely to persist. The options chain reveals two high-conviction plays:

1. EXPE20260123P280 (Put, $280 strike, Jan 23 expiry)
• Implied Volatility: 36.56% (moderate)
• LVR: 103.74% (high leverage)
• Delta: -0.257 (sensitive to price drops)
• Theta: -0.0004 (minimal time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0183 (responsive to price swings)
• Turnover: 6,765 (liquid)
This put option offers asymmetric upside if EXPE breaks below $280, with a 5% downside scenario projecting a $10.73 payoff. The high LVR and moderate IV make it ideal for aggressive short-term bearish bets.

2. EXPE20260123C280 (Call, $280 strike, Jan 23 expiry)
• Implied Volatility: 29.83% (moderate)
• LVR: 23.15% (moderate leverage)
• Delta: 0.785 (strong directional bias)
• Theta: -0.986 (high time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0204 (high sensitivity)
• Turnover: 62,376 (extremely liquid)
This call is a high-gamma, high-delta play for bulls expecting a rebound above $280. A 5% upside scenario yields a $33.84 payoff, though theta decay is steep. Best for directional traders with a 3–5-day time horizon.

Hook: If $280 breaks decisively, EXPE20260123P280 offers a high-leverage short-side play. For aggressive bulls, EXPE20260123C280 is a liquid, high-gamma call to capitalize on a potential bounce.

Backtest Expedia Stock Performance
The backtest of Expedia (EXPE) after a -3% intraday plunge from 2022 to the present shows favorable performance metrics. The 3-Day win rate is 56.02%, the 10-Day win rate is 58.69%, and the 30-Day win rate is 65.11%, indicating that the stock tends to recover and even exceed its previous levels in the short term following the plunge. The maximum return during the backtest period was 9.88%, which occurred on day 59, suggesting that while there is some volatility, EXPE can experience significant gains in the aftermath of a sharp decline.

Act Now: EXPE at Pivotal Support Amid Sector Downturn
Expedia’s 3.3% intraday drop has brought it perilously close to its 30D support at $285 and the critical 200D support at $166.27. With the RSI trending lower and MACD divergence intact, the near-term outlook remains bearish unless the stock reclaims $296.14 resistance. Sector leader Booking Holdings (BKNG, -2.05%) underscores the travel sector’s fragility, amplifying the need for caution. Investors should prioritize the EXPE20260123P280 put for short-term bearish exposure and monitor $280 as a make-or-break level. Watch for a breakdown below $280 or a regulatory resolution on the visa freeze.