Expedia (EXPE) Surges 3.19% on Bullish Candlestick Pattern, Two-Day Gains Top 8.85% as Moving Averages Confirm Strong Uptrend

Expedia (EXPE) is currently exhibiting a 3.19% increase in the most recent session, marking two consecutive days of gains with an 8.85% cumulative rise. This upward momentum is supported by a bullish candlestick pattern, where the recent close at $209.68 (August 13) forms a strong body above the prior session’s high of $203.19. Key support levels emerge around the $192.63 (August 11 close) and $187.61 (August 7 close), while resistance is evident at $203.19 and the recent high of $210.28. The price action suggests a potential continuation of the uptrend, though a retest of the $192.63 support could validate its robustness.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day moving average (calculated from mid-July to August) hovers around $187–$190, while the 200-day MA sits closer to $170–$175. The current price of $209.68 is decisively above both, indicating a strong short- to medium-term uptrend. The 100-day MA (~$183) reinforces this, as the price remains above it. Confluence between the short-term (50-day) and long-term (200-day) averages suggests a sustained bullish bias, though a breakdown below $192.63 could trigger a reevaluation of the trend.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has shown positive divergence over the past two weeks, with the line crossing above the signal line, signaling strengthening bullish momentum. The KDJ stochastic oscillator (14,3,3) entered overbought territory (RSI >70) around August 13, with %K (85.7) and %D (78.2) aligning closely. While this suggests a potential overbought condition, the KDJ’s failure to form a bearish crossover (e.g., %K dipping below %D) implies the uptrend may persist. However, a divergence between price highs and KDJ peaks could foreshadow a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded recently, with the price touching the upper band at $210.28 on August 13. The bands’ width has widened from a contraction in mid-August, suggesting a breakout scenario. The current position near the upper band aligns with overbought conditions, but the bands’ expansion also indicates heightened momentum. A pullback toward the middle band ($199.98) could signal a consolidation phase, though a break below the lower band ($189.08) would raise bearish concerns.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume surged on August 13 to 2.41 million shares, validating the price surge. However, volume has been mixed in prior sessions, with lower volumes on the August 12 rally ($203.19 close). This suggests the recent move is supported by institutional buying, but sustained volume above 2 million shares per session will be critical to confirm the trend’s durability. A decline in volume during follow-through rallies may indicate weakening conviction.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The 14-day RSI has spiked to ~78, entering overbought territory. Historical context shows RSI frequently exceeded 70 during the July–August rally, indicating a strong uptrend. However, prolonged overbought conditions (e.g., RSI >75 for multiple sessions) often precede corrections. A drop below 60 would signal a potential pullback, though the RSI’s failure to form a bearish divergence with price (e.g., lower highs) suggests the trend may hold for now.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key retracement levels between the May 30 low ($156.93) and the August 13 high ($210.28) include 38.2% at ~$180 and 50% at ~$183. The current price is well above these levels, but a retest of the 38.2% level could confirm its strength as a support. A breakdown below $180 would align with a deeper correction, potentially targeting the 61.8% level at ~$163.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy of entering long positions when RSI exceeds 70 has demonstrated a 58.93% win rate over 3 days and 73.21% over 30 days. This aligns with the current overbought RSI and suggests a high probability of short-term continuation. However, the strategy’s modest average returns (~3.96% over 30 days) imply that while success is likely, large gains are not guaranteed. Integrating this with confluence from MACD and volume could enhance the strategy’s robustness, particularly if the 50-day MA remains above the 200-day. A stop-loss below $192.63 (recent support) would mitigate risk in case of a reversal.