What to Expect From These 3 Energy Stocks This Earnings Season?

We are entering the thick of the fourth quarter earnings season for the Oil/Energy sector, with some of the S&P 500 companies expected to come up with results tomorrow. Energy investors are bracing for a mixed but potentially rewarding stretch. Oil prices weakened sharply year over year, pressured by global oversupply and softer demand across major economies. Yet natural gas told a different story, climbing on strong LNG exports, colder weather and rising power needs from AI-driven data centers. With earnings growth expected to outpace revenue gains, this season could reveal which energy players are best positioned to navigate shifting commodity trends.

Year-Over-Year Commodity Price Comparison

In the fourth quarter of 2025, West Texas Intermediate crude averaged $59.64 per barrel, down from $70.69 a year earlier. Given crude oil’s sensitivity to geopolitical tensions, supply disruptions and economic cycles, this sharp drop points to a broader shift in global supply-demand dynamics. The decline was largely caused by persistent oversupply amid muted demand growth. OPEC+ started easing its voluntary output cuts in September, adding barrels to the market, while steady production from U.S. shale and other non-OPEC producers such as Brazil, Guyana and Canada further lifted inventories.

Demand conditions were also soft, reflecting slower economic activity in major markets like China and Europe, rising electric vehicle adoption and trade tariff uncertainties during the Trump administration.

Meanwhile, natural gas prices moved higher in fourth-quarter 2025, with Henry Hub averaging $3.75 per MMBtu compared with $2.44 a year ago. The increase was supported by colder winter weather in North America, robust LNG exports to Europe and Asia and stronger power demand from rapidly expanding AI-driven data centers.

How Will Q4 Earnings React to Fluctuating Commodity Prices?

Despite a decline in oil prices, the picture looks rather upbeat for the fourth-quarter earnings season. Per the latest Earnings Trends report, the energy sector is on track for an earnings boost compared to a year earlier, when it was just about in the positive territory. Per our expectations, fourth-quarter earnings for the sector are expected to rise 14% year over year, marking a clear improvement from the 3.2% growth recorded in the prior quarter. However, revenue growth remains subdued, with fourth-quarter revenues down 0.3% versus the year-earlier period, reflecting ongoing pricing and demand pressures.

Approximately 58.3% of S&P 500 oil and energy companies have released their fourth-quarter results so far. Total earnings for these companies are up a stronger 26.5% year over year, even as revenues slipped 1%. Notably, 85.7% of reporting companies beat EPS estimates and the same percentage beat revenue estimates, resulting in a healthy blended beat rate of 71.4%. Furthermore, the sector's projected net margin for the fourth quarter is a healthy 1.10%.

Oil/Energy Companies’ Earnings in Focus

In light of this context, let’s explore how the following oil and energy companies are shaping up ahead of their fourth-quarter earnings reports on Feb. 26 and how they’re poised to tackle the challenges they face.

Our proprietary model indicates that a company needs to have the right combination of two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) — to increase the odds of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Let’s explore three prominent companies and evaluate how they are positioned before their fourth-quarter earnings release.

Pembina Pipeline Corporation PBA is slated to report fourth-quarter results after the closing bell. In the last reported quarter, this Canada-based, midstream operator’s earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 31.1% on weaker year-over-year results in the Marketing & New Ventures segment and soft delivery in the Pipelines segment. Over the trailing four quarters, PBA missed earnings estimates twice, beat once and was in line once, delivering a negative average surprise of 5.3%. This is depicted in the chart below:

Pembina Pipeline Corp. Price and EPS Surprise

Pembina Pipeline Corp. price-eps-surprise | Pembina Pipeline Corp. Quote

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Pembina this time around. This is because it has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #4. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PBA’s fourth-quarter earnings and revenues is pegged at 50 cents per share and $1.1 billion, respectively. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

On the other hand, Coterra Energy Inc. CTRA is scheduled to report quarterly earnings following the market's close. Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Coterra Energy this time around. This is because it has an Earnings ESP of -4.25% and a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) at present.

Coterra Energy is an independent upstream operator engaged in the exploration, development and production of natural gas, crude oil and natural gas liquids.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Coterra Energy’s fourth quarter earnings is pegged at 45 cents per share, indicating an 8.2% decline from the prior-year reported figure. CTRA’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate thrice in the last four quarters and missed once, delivering an average surprise of 6.6%.

This is depicted in the chart below:

Coterra Energy Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Coterra Energy Inc. price-eps-surprise | Coterra Energy Inc. Quote

Finally, Cheniere Energy, Inc. LNG is scheduled to report quarterly earnings before the opening bell. For Cheniere Energy, things are not so bright this time around, as it has an Earnings ESP of -0.22% and carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

Cheniere Energy is primarily engaged in the business of liquefied natural gas (“LNG”). It constructs and operates LNG terminal, and is also involved in LNG and natural gas marketing.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LNG’s fourth quarter earnings is pegged at $3.83 per share, indicating an 11.6% decrease from the prior-year reported figure. LNG’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate thrice in the last four quarters while missing once, delivering an average surprise of 80%.

This is depicted in the chart below:

Cheniere Energy, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Cheniere Energy, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Cheniere Energy, Inc. Quote

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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