Expand Energy Jumps 4.87% To $104.21 As Technicals Signal Bullish Reversal

Expand Energy (EXE) rose 4.87% to $104.21 in the latest session, extending its two-day gain to 6.20%. This marks a notable recovery from recent lows, warranting examination of technical dynamics.
Candlestick Theory
The latest session formed a bullish marubozu candle (open near $99.79, close near $105.47 high), signaling strong accumulation after testing the psychological $100 support. This follows a hammer pattern at $95.62 on July 23, which established intermediate support. Immediate resistance is observed at $105.47 (today's high), with more significant resistance at the $107.53-$110.07 gap zone from the July 21 breakdown. The $95.62-$99.41 trough now forms a critical support band.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average ($107.50) caps upside, maintaining its position below the 100-day ($109.20) and 200-day ($112.10) averages, confirming the bearish hierarchy characteristic of the prevailing downtrend. Today's close at $104.21 remains below all three averages, though the narrowing spread between price and the 50-DMA suggests weakening downward momentum. A decisive breach above $107.50 may signal trend reversal potential.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (-1.25 histogram) shows improving momentum as the signal line begins converging toward the MACD line from oversold territory. KDJ presents a bullish crossover with K-line (42) piercing the D-line (38) upward, while the J-line (50) approaches neutral from oversold. This alignment suggests building upside momentum, though both oscillators remain below equilibrium, warranting confirmation.
Bollinger Bands
Price rebounded sharply from the lower Bollinger Band ($96.80), driving it toward the 20-day midline ($103.50). Bandwidth contracted 18% in the prior week, indicating reduced volatility before today’s 4.87% breakout expansion. A sustained move above the midline could trigger retest of the upper band ($111.30), though historical mean reversion near $105-$107 may induce friction.
Volume-Price Relationship
Today’s 7.65 million shares traded eclipsed the 10-day average by 85%, confirming conviction behind the breakout. This surge followed below-average volume during the consolidation at $95-$99, signaling capitulation exhaustion. The volume uptick coincides with higher price ranges, suggesting accumulation. Non-confirmation would occur if prices retreat on elevated volume.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (42) exited oversold territory after hovering near 30 last week, reflecting improving momentum. While still below neutral (50), today’s sharp price gain on heavy volume positions it for potential continuation. The indicator doesn't yet show overbought (>70) exhaustion, leaving room for further upside barring volume diminishment.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the swing high of $109.50 (July 18) and swing low of $95.62 (July 23), key retracements emerge: 38.2% ($101.05), 50% ($102.56), and 61.8% ($104.20). Today's close at $104.21 precisely tests the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance—a critical breakout level. Conquering this may expose the 78.6% level at $106.22 and full gap fill at $108.64. Failure here could retrace toward $101.05 support.
Confluence and Divergence
Bullish confluence appears at $104.20 where Fibonacci resistance aligns with the volume-confirmed breakout and KDJ/MACD momentum inflections. The Bollinger midline and 50-DMA form secondary resistance near $107.50. A mild divergence exists with RSI still lagging price recovery, though improving readings temper concern. Should $104.20 hold as resistance while MACD crosses bullish and volume persists, upward resolution appears probable in the near term.