Expand Energy’s 0.55 Rally Amid 45.85 Volume Drop Propels High-Liquidity Momentum Strategy to 166.71 Return

On July 31, 2025, Expand Energy (EXE) closed with a 0.55% gain, trading with a daily volume of $0.43 billion, a 45.85% drop from the prior day, ranking 335th in market liquidity. The company reported Q2 2025 adjusted earnings of $1.10 per share, below the $1.14 consensus, but exceeded the prior-year profit of $0.01. Revenue of $2 billion missed estimates by $74 million but surged from $378 million in 2024. Natural gas production averaged 7,202 MMcfe/day, up 162% year-over-year, while realized prices rose 18.7% to $2.98 per Mcf, though below the $3.02 estimate. Operating expenses hit $2.4 billion, driven by tripling gathering and transportation costs. The firm returned $448 million to shareholders via dividends and buybacks and ended the quarter with $731 million in cash and $5.1 billion in long-term debt.

Expand guided for Q3 2025 production of 7,150–7,250 MMcfe/day and full-year output of 7,000–7,200 MMcfe/day. Capital spending is projected at $760–840 million for Q3 and $2.9–3 billion for 2025. Institutional ownership increased, with Mackenzie Financial Corp boosting its stake by 38.5% to 382,540 shares. Analysts remain optimistic, with 17 “buy” ratings and a $129.80 average price target, despite mixed earnings results and elevated operating costs.

The strategy of purchasing the top 500 stocks by daily trading volume and holding them for one day generated a 166.71% return from 2022 to July 30, 2025, outperforming the benchmark’s 29.18% by 137.53%. This success was attributed to high-liquidity stocks capturing momentum-driven market shifts, with volume surges in names like VICI Properties and Verisign contributing to the strategy’s performance. The approach highlights the role of liquidity and risk-managed momentum in generating excess returns over time.