Exclusive: Top Turkish Refiner Tupras Resumes Buying Russian Urals Crude Amid Sanctions and Price Shifts

The Turkish state-owned oil giant Tüpraş has quietly resumed purchases of Russian Urals crude in early 2025, marking a strategic pivot as global energy markets navigate the complex interplay of sanctions, pricing dynamics, and geopolitical tensions. This move, confirmed by trading sources and shipping data, underscores the enduring economic calculus driving Turkey’s energy policy despite U.S. and EU pressures.

The Return of Urals: A Price-Driven Decision

Tüpraş’s renewed interest in Russian crude stems from a sharp decline in Urals prices to their lowest levels since 2023, falling below the $60-per-barrel price cap imposed by the G7 in early 2023. By March 2025, Urals traded at an average of $66.5 per barrel, a 6% monthly drop, while maintaining a $5.9-per-barrel discount to Brent crude. This price erosion created a cost advantage for Tüpraş, which had previously relied on Urals for 65% of its crude imports in 2024 before halting purchases in January 2025 amid U.S. sanctions targeting Russian energy infrastructure.

The resumption highlights a critical loophole: even with sanctions, Russian oil remains competitive when discounted sufficiently. “Tüpraş is leveraging price volatility to secure supplies while navigating sanctions,” said an analyst at Kpler, a shipping analytics firm tracking the shipments.

Sanctions Workarounds and Shadow Tankers

Despite U.S. sanctions on 183 “shadow tankers” (non-G7+ insured/owned vessels) in January 2025, Russian crude exports via these vessels surged to 53% of seaborne shipments in March. Tüpraş’s resumption likely involved such tankers or deals structured to comply with the $60 price cap. Meanwhile, G7+ insured tankers transported 36% more Russian crude month-on-month in March, suggesting improved logistics for compliant shipments.

The use of older, riskier tankers—36% of the shadow fleet is over 20 years old—raises environmental concerns. A potential oil spill in Turkey’s maritime chokepoints, such as the Bosporus Strait, could incur cleanup costs exceeding €1 billion, amplifying geopolitical risks for Ankara.

Geopolitical Tightrope Walking

Tüpraş’s actions reflect Turkey’s precarious balancing act. While the U.S. has sanctioned five Turkish firms since 2023 for facilitating Russian energy trades, Ankara’s NATO membership shields it from severe penalties. However, the move strains EU-Turkey relations, as Brussels suspects Turkey of re-exporting Russian gas under a “Turkish Blend” label. The European Commission is investigating claims that 40% of Turkey’s gas exports to Hungary and Serbia originate from TurkStream, violating sanctions.

Investment Implications: Risks and Opportunities

For investors, Tüpraş’s Urals pivot presents mixed signals. On one hand, lower crude costs could boost refining margins: Urals’ discount to Brent widened in early 2025, potentially improving profit outlooks. Tüpraş’s stock, however, faces headwinds from regulatory risks. The U.S. has proposed 50% tariffs on Russian oil imports, while the EU debates banning oil product imports.

Environmental liabilities loom large: shadow tankers’ aging fleets and lack of insurance could expose Tüpraş to liability claims in case of spills. Additionally, Turkey’s $20 billion Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant (Rosatom-led) underscores its reliance on Russian energy infrastructure, tying its financial fate to Moscow’s stability.

Conclusion: A Fragile Equilibrium

Tüpraş’s resumption of Urals purchases exemplifies the fragile equilibrium in global energy markets. While discounted prices and sanctions workarounds offer short-term gains, long-term risks—sanctions escalation, environmental liabilities, and EU-U.S. pressure—remain. Investors must weigh Tüpraş’s cost advantages against geopolitical volatility. With Russia’s crude exports to Turkey falling 50% in February–March 2025 before rebounding, the path forward hinges on whether price caps tighten further or Asian demand (China’s March imports surged 42%) offsets Western pressure.

For now, Tüpraş’s move signals that energy pragmatism often trumps sanctions in an era of fractured global alliances. The question remains: Can Turkey sustain this balancing act without triggering a geopolitical backlash? The markets—and the Strait of Bosporus—will tell.