Excelerate Energy’s $700M Gamble: LNG Dominance or Debt Disaster?

The energy sector is never short on big moves, and Excelerate Energy (NYSE: EE) just pulled one of the biggest. The company announced a proposed $700 million offering of unsecured senior notes due 2030 to fund its $1.055 billion acquisition of New Fortress Energy’s Jamaican LNG assets—a deal that exceeds Excelerate’s own $2.1 billion market cap. Let me break down why this could be a masterstroke or a misstep.

First, the stakes: this acquisition isn’t just about expanding operations. It’s about owning a critical LNG terminal in Jamaica, a strategic gateway to Caribbean and Latin American markets. Excelerate’s CEO, Dan Harlan, has long argued that LNG infrastructure is the future of clean energy, and this move solidifies their position as a global player. But here’s the catch: borrowing $700 million to buy an asset that’s 50% larger than their current equity value is like buying a mansion with a credit card. The question is: Can Excelerate’s cash flow handle the debt?

Let’s start with the numbers. Excelerate’s Q1 2025 results show a $96–101 million Adjusted EBITDA, up from $316 million annually, and cash reserves of $600–620 million (excluding recent equity proceeds). The company’s current ratio of 3.49 suggests strong short-term liquidity, and its $350 million undrawn credit facility provides a safety net. But the debt-to-equity ratio is ticking upward: from 0.45 in Q1 to a projected rise as the $700M note is added to existing $880 million in debt.

(This chart would show the stock’s dip after the April 2 equity offering, reflecting investor dilution concerns.)

Here’s where it gets dicey. The $184 million equity offering in April—meant to fund part of the Jamaica deal—already caused EE’s stock to drop 12% in a single day. Institutional buyers might balk at the senior notes’ lack of collateral (they’re unsecured), and the 2030 maturity means Excelerate will be paying interest for over seven years. If LNG demand sputters or interest rates rise, this could turn into a heavy anchor.

But there’s a flip side. The Jamaican terminal comes with long-term supply contracts and a memorandum of understanding with PV Gas for U.S. LNG exports to Vietnam starting 2026. These aren’t just assets—they’re revenue streams. Excelerate’s Q1 projections also include $52–59 million in pre-tax income, a sign that its core business is humming. And let’s not forget: the company’s “GOOD” financial health score from third-party analysts (InvestingPro) isn’t a typo.

Critics will point to Excelerate’s $163 million in debt repayments due this year, which the notes will cover. But that’s small compared to the $1.05 billion acquisition cost. The real test is whether the Jamaica platform can boost EBITDA enough to justify the leverage. If successful, this could push Excelerate’s annual EBITDA north of $400 million by 2026—making the debt load manageable.

The risks? Geopolitical headwinds (like Jamaica’s political stability), LNG price volatility, and execution delays are all listed in SEC filings. But let’s be real: energy plays are inherently risky. The key is whether the reward outweighs the risk.

The Bottom Line: Excelerate is all-in on LNG infrastructure, and this $700 million bet is its bid to become the go-to player in Caribbean energy. The math works if the Jamaica deal boosts EBITDA by at least 30%, which seems achievable given the terminal’s scale. But investors need nerves of steel—this isn’t a “buy and hold” for retirees.

For aggressive investors willing to stomach volatility, EE could be a diamond in the rough. The liquidity cushion, strategic global footprint (18 offices worldwide), and diversification into Vietnam’s market give me pause—but just enough to say: This isn’t a gamble. It’s a calculated play.

Final Take: Excelerate Energy’s move is bold, but the cash flow and infrastructure dominance make it a “Hold” with a speculative upside. Monitor debt levels closely, but don’t underestimate the power of owning a critical LNG hub. This could be the next Kinder Morgan—or a cautionary tale. Only time will tell.

Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. LNG demand and geopolitical risks could significantly impact Excelerate’s valuation.