Exact Sciences Soars 6.77% on Q3 Earnings Surge and Guidance Hike—Is This the Start of a Biotech Breakout?

Summary
• Exact Sciences (EXAS) surges 6.77% intraday, hitting a 52-week high of $72.45
• Q3 revenue jumps 20% to $851M, driven by Cologuard Plus and Cancerguard launch
• Full-year revenue guidance raised to $3.235B, signaling robust demand for cancer diagnostics
• Free cash flow soars 69% to $190M, but G&A costs rise 25% amid integration challenges

Exact Sciences is riding a wave of momentum as its Q3 earnings report delivers a blockbuster performance. The stock’s 6.77% surge reflects strong revenue growth, improved margins, and a bullish outlook for its multi-cancer detection pipeline. However, rising administrative costs and margin pressures hint at lingering operational hurdles. Traders are now weighing whether this rally is a sustainable breakout or a short-term spike.

Q3 Earnings Surge and Guidance Hike Ignite Biotech Rally
Exact Sciences’ 6.77% intraday surge is directly tied to its Q3 2025 earnings report, which revealed a 20% revenue increase to $851 million, driven by Cologuard Plus expansion and the launch of Cancerguard. The company raised full-year revenue guidance to $3.235 billion, reflecting strong market demand for its cancer screening tests. Free cash flow surged 69% to $190 million, while adjusted EBITDA margins expanded 200 basis points to 16%. However, rising general and administrative (G&A) expenses—up 25% year-over-year to $241 million—highlight integration challenges from recent acquisitions. The stock’s rally aligns with its 52-week high, as investors bet on its leadership in the multi-cancer early detection (MCED) race.

Biotech Sector Volatility Amid Regulatory and Margin Pressures
The biotech sector remains mixed, with Exact Sciences outperforming peers like Illumina (ILMN), which fell 1.88% on concerns over pricing pressures in genomic testing. While EXAS benefits from its dominant Cologuard franchise and MCED pipeline, sector-wide challenges include regulatory scrutiny over test reimbursement and rising R&D costs. The sector’s beta of 1.54 underscores its volatility, but EXAS’ 6.77% move suggests its growth narrative is gaining traction despite broader headwinds.

Options and ETF Plays for EXAS’ Bullish Momentum
• 200-day average: 51.47 (well below current price)
• RSI: 77.30 (overbought)
• MACD: 2.56 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at 71.52, above upper band of 66.93

Exact Sciences’ technicals suggest a continuation of its bullish momentum, with key resistance at $72.45 (52-week high) and support at $67.97 (intraday low). The RSI’s overbought reading and MACD’s positive divergence indicate short-term strength, though a pullback to the 200-day average could trigger profit-taking. For leveraged exposure, consider ETFs like XLK (NMS:XLK) if data becomes available.

Top Options Plays:
• EXAS20251107C70 (Call, Strike: 70, Expiry: 2025-11-07):
- IV: 47.90% (moderate)
- Leverage: 31.74%
- Delta: 0.667 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.631 (high time decay)
- Gamma: 0.1015 (high sensitivity to price moves)
- Turnover: 7,952
- Payoff at 5% upside ($75.10): $5.10 per contract
- This call offers high gamma and leverage, ideal for capitalizing on a breakout above $72.45.

• EXAS20251107C75 (Call, Strike: 75, Expiry: 2025-11-07):
- IV: 49.25% (moderate)
- Leverage: 204.03%
- Delta: 0.1796 (low sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.2494 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0712 (moderate sensitivity)
- Turnover: 5,467
- Payoff at 5% upside ($75.10): $0.10 per contract
- High leverage suits aggressive bulls expecting a sharp move beyond $75.

Actionable Insight: Aggressive bulls may consider EXAS20251107C70 into a breakout above $72.45, while conservative traders should watch for a pullback to $67.97 before initiating longs.

Backtest Exact Sciences Stock Performance
Below is an interactive report that summarises the requested back-test. Key assumptions we filled in for you:• Surge definition – day-over-day close ≥ +7%. • Entry – buy EXAS at the closing price on the signal day. • Exits / risk control – whichever comes first:   – Take-profit +20%   – Stop-loss -10%   – Maximum holding period 20 trading days • Back-test window – 2022-01-03 to 2025-11-04 (latest available close). These parameters can be fine-tuned any time.Inspect the detailed metrics, trade list and equity curve in the module. (If the module does not render automatically, please refresh.)Observations & Next Steps 1. The strategy was marginally unprofitable over the period, with a small negative total and annualised return and a modest drawdown. 2. Very few qualifying 7 %-surge days occurred, so sample size may be insufficient for statistical confidence. 3. Consider exploring:   • Alternative thresholds (e.g. 5 % or 10 % surges)   • Different holding-period limits or trailing stops   • Adding volume or volatility filters to improve signal quality Let me know if you’d like to iterate on any of these angles or dive deeper into individual trade details.

Exact Sciences at a Pivotal Crossroads—Act Now or Miss the MCED Wave
Exact Sciences’ 6.77% rally reflects its dominance in the cancer screening market and the promise of its Cancerguard launch, but rising G&A costs and margin pressures remain risks. The stock’s technicals suggest a continuation of its bullish trend, with key resistance at $72.45 and support at $67.97. Investors should monitor the biotech sector’s performance, particularly Illumina’s -1.88% move, as regulatory and pricing pressures could impact EXAS’ margins. For now, the 52-week high and strong options liquidity make EXAS a compelling play for those betting on the MCED revolution. Watch for a breakout above $72.45 or a breakdown below $67.97 to confirm the next move.