EVGO Surges 10.2% in Volatile Session: Is This a Short-Lived Rally or the Start of a Bullish Turnaround?

Summary
• EVGO gaps 10.2% higher intraday after opening at $3.83
• 52-week high of $9.07 looms as critical psychological barrier
• MACD crossover and rising volume signal short-term bullish momentum
• Sector-wide EV sector volatility spikes amid Chinese EV sales fraud revelations

EVgo (EVGO) has ignited a dramatic 10.2% intraday rally, surging from its $3.83 open to a $4.20 high, defying its 52-week low of $2.195. This sharp reversal follows a bearish pivot top signal on June 16 and a recent bearish evaluation from analysts. The move coincides with broader sector turbulence as Chinese EV brands face regulatory scrutiny over inflated sales practices, creating a backdrop of mixed signals for EVgo's strategic positioning.

MACD Buy Signal and Rising Volume Fuel EVGO's Rally
EVGO's dramatic 10.2% intraday surge is driven by a short-term bullish crossover in the MACD indicator (-0.0799) and rising volume (1.6047% turnover rate), suggesting strong institutional participation. The stock has pierced its 30-day moving average ($3.817) and is now trading 10.3% above its 52-week low. This momentum follows a bearish pivot top on June 16 (-17.86% decline) and conflicting signals from moving averages: the short-term average ($3.817) suggests a buy signal, while the 200-day average ($4.273) remains a looming resistance. The 52.29 RSI reading indicates moderate momentum without overbought territory, suggesting room for further gains if the $3.83 short-term average is cleared.

EV Sector Volatility Deepens Amid Chinese Sales Scandal
Options Playbook: Capitalizing on EVGO's Volatility with Gamma-Driven Calls
• Technical Indicators:
- 30D MA: $3.817 (bullish crossover)
- 200D MA: $4.273 (key resistance)
- RSI: 52.29 (moderate momentum)
- Bollinger Bands: $3.239–$3.961 (wide range indicates high volatility)

EVGO's technical setup favors aggressive call options for leveraged exposure to its short-term bullish momentum. The $4 strike call (EVGO20250815C4) stands out with 79.29% implied volatility, 60% price change ratio, and 10.25% leverage. This August 15 contract has 543 volume and $21,808 turnover, ensuring liquidity. Its 0.5938 delta and 0.4470 gamma suggest strong sensitivity to price movements. A 5% upside from $4.1553 to $4.363 would generate a $0.113 payoff (max(0, $4.363–$4)).

• EVGO20250815C4:
- Code: EVGO20250815C4
- Type: Call
- Strike: $4
- Expiry: 2025-08-15
- IV: 79.29% (high volatility)
- Leverage: 10.25% (amplified exposure)
- Delta: 0.5938 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0099 (time decay)
- Gamma: 0.4470 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: $21,808 (liquid)
- Payoff: $0.113 at 5% upside

• EVGO20260116C4.5:
- Code: EVGO20260116C4.5
- Type: Call
- Strike: $4.5
- Expiry: 2026-01-16
- IV: 84.72% (extreme volatility)
- Leverage: 4.82% (moderate exposure)
- Delta: 0.5706 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0030 (slow time decay)
- Gamma: 0.16098 (moderate sensitivity)
- Turnover: $377 (lower liquidity)
- Payoff: $0.363 at 5% upside

EVGO20250815C4 offers optimal leverage with its 0.5938 delta and 0.4470 gamma, making it responsive to the $4.20 intraday high. The 79.29% implied volatility suggests market expectations of continued volatility, aligning with EVGO's 6.15% projected daily range. For a more conservative approach, EVGO20260116C4.5 provides longer-term exposure but with lower liquidity. Aggressive bulls should prioritize EVGO20250815C4 into a breakout above $4.20.

Backtest EVgo Stock Performance
The strategy of buying EVGO after a 10% intraday increase resulted in a significant loss. The strategy's CAGR was -31.12%, with a total return of -77.72% and an excess return of -117.60%. The strategy had a high maximum drawdown of 93.86% and a Sharpe ratio of -0.33, indicating it was riskier than the benchmark, which had a return of 39.88%.

Bullish Momentum Intact: Watch $4.20 Resistance and MACD Crossover
EVGO's 10.2% intraday surge demonstrates strong short-term bullish momentum, supported by a MACD crossover and rising volume. The stock faces critical resistance at its 200-day average ($4.273) and 52-week high ($9.07), but the $4.20 intraday high suggests institutional buying pressure. Investors should monitor the $3.83 support (short-term average) and $3.72 volume-weighted support. The sector's regulatory turbulence from Chinese EV sales fraud adds risk, but EVGO's technicals remain compelling. Tesla (TSLA) leads the EV sector with 0.094% intraday gains, signaling mixed sector sentiment. Position a long call position on EVGO20250815C4 for leveraged exposure if the $4.20 level holds.