EVgo Soars 10.6% on California EV Infrastructure Push and Analyst Hype – What’s Next?

Summary
• EVgo (EVGO) surges 10.6% intraday, hitting $4.335 after opening at $3.78
• California’s $55M ‘Fast Charge California Project’ prioritizes EV infrastructure in disadvantaged communities
• Stifel analyst Stephen Gengaro upgrades EVgo to Buy with $8 price target
EVgo’s explosive 10% rally on August 18, 2025, has electrified the EV sector. The surge follows a landmark California initiative to fund fast chargers and a bullish analyst note. With the stock trading near its 52-week high of $9.07, the move reflects growing optimism in the EV transition despite political headwinds.

California’s $55M EV Charging Program and Stifel Upgrade Ignite EVgo’s 10% Rally
EVgo’s 10% intraday surge was catalyzed by two key events. First, California’s $55 million 'Fast Charge California Project' announced on August 5 prioritizes funding for fast chargers in disadvantaged communities, tribal areas, and low-income regions. This aligns with EVgo’s strategy to expand infrastructure in underserved markets. Second, Stifel analyst Stephen Gengaro reiterated a Buy rating with an $8 price target, citing EVgo’s Q2 results where revenue exceeded expectations and its strategic positioning in the EV charging ecosystem. The stock’s sharp move also reflects broader sector momentum, as EV adoption continues to rise despite regulatory uncertainty.

EV Sector Gains Momentum as ChargePoint Leads
The EV sector is showing resilience, with ChargePoint (CHPT) up 3.89% intraday, reinforcing the sector’s strength. EVgo’s rally mirrors broader optimism in EV infrastructure, driven by state-level initiatives like California’s program and global EV market share growth. While EVgo’s short-term gains are news-driven, the sector’s long-term trajectory remains tied to policy support and consumer adoption trends.

Options Playbook: Leveraging Volatility in EVgo’s Bullish Run
• MACD: 0.0268 (bullish divergence), Signal Line: -0.0171 (crossing up), Histogram: 0.0439 (positive expansion)
• RSI: 56.79 (neutral to overbought)
• Bollinger Bands: 4.04 (upper), 3.635 (middle), 3.23 (lower) – price near upper band
• 200-day MA: 3.925 (current price at 4.195, above MA)
EVgo’s technicals suggest a continuation of its bullish momentum. Key support at 3.635 (middle Bollinger Band) and resistance at 4.335 (intraday high) define the near-term range. The stock’s short-term bullish trend and elevated volatility make it a candidate for options strategies. Two top options from the chain stand out:
• EVGO20250919C4: Call option with strike price $4, expiring September 19. Key stats: IV 77.67% (high volatility), leverage ratio 8.55%, delta 0.629 (moderate sensitivity), theta -0.0084 (rapid time decay), gamma 0.386 (strong price sensitivity), turnover 46,369. This contract offers high leverage and liquidity, ideal for a 5% upside scenario (target price $4.40). Payoff: max(0, 4.40 - 4) = $0.40 per share.
• EVGO20251017C4: Call option with strike price $4, expiring October 17. Key stats: IV 65.32% (moderate volatility), leverage ratio 7.61%, delta 0.630 (moderate sensitivity), theta -0.0049 (slower decay), gamma 0.338 (solid sensitivity), turnover 6,446. This option balances time decay and gamma, suitable for a mid-term hold. Payoff: max(0, 4.40 - 4) = $0.40 per share.
Aggressive bulls should consider EVGO20250919C4 for a short-term play, while EVGO20251017C4 offers a more balanced approach. Both contracts benefit from EVgo’s proximity to key resistance and elevated volatility.

Backtest EVgo Stock Performance
The backtest of EVGO's performance after a 11% intraday surge shows mixed results. While the stock experienced a maximum return of 3.05% on the 54th day, the overall win rate for 3-day, 10-day, and 30-day periods was relatively low, with returns of -0.01%, 0.24%, and 1.38%, respectively. This suggests that while there is potential for gains, the stock also exhibits volatility and inconsistent short-term performance following such a significant increase.

EVgo’s Rally: A Catalyst-Driven Surge with Sector Implications
EVgo’s 10% surge underscores the power of policy-driven optimism and analyst momentum in the EV sector. With California’s $55M program and Stifel’s $8 price target, the stock is positioned to test its 52-week high of $9.07. However, short-term volatility remains high, as reflected in the options chain’s elevated IV. Investors should monitor the 4.335 intraday high for a breakout and the 3.635 Bollinger Band for support. ChargePoint’s 3.89% rise highlights sector-wide strength, but EVgo’s rally is more directly tied to its strategic alignment with state-level initiatives. For now, the path of least resistance is up, but caution is warranted near overbought RSI levels. Watch for a breakout above 4.335 or a breakdown below 3.635 to confirm direction.