Is EVgo (EVGO) Undervalued Amid Diverging Growth and Profitability Trajectories?

The electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure sector is at a pivotal inflection point. As global EV adoption accelerates, companies like EVgo Inc. (EVGO) are expanding their networks at breakneck speed, yet their financials remain unprofitable. This divergence between long-term demand and short-term profitability raises a critical question: Is EVgo undervalued, or is its valuation a warning sign of unsustainable expectations?

EVgo's Growth: A Story of Scale and Momentum

EVgo's third-quarter 2025 results underscore its rapid ascent. Total revenue surged 37% year-over-year to $92.3 million, driven by a 33% increase in charging network revenue to $55.8 million. The company's network throughput hit a record 95 gigawatt-hours (GWh), a 25% year-over-year jump, while its operational DC fast-charging stalls expanded to 4,590, up 25% YoY according to Q3 2025 results. These metrics reflect a company capitalizing on the U.S. EV charging boom, where the number of public charging ports is projected to grow from 4 million in 2024 to 35 million by 2030.

EVgo's customer base has also expanded, with 1.659 million accounts as of Q3 2025, a 34% increase from the prior year. Management's 2025 revenue guidance of $350–$365 million, with upside potential to $405 million, further signals confidence in its ability to scale according to Q3 2025 results. However, this growth comes at a cost: EVgo's adjusted EBITDA remains negative, ranging from $(15) million to $(8) million in its baseline scenario, though it acknowledges potential upside to $23 million according to Q3 2025 results.

Industry Projections: A Market Poised for Decades of Growth

The EV charging infrastructure market is set for explosive expansion. U.S. market size is projected to reach $24.07 billion by 2030, growing at a 30.3% compound annual rate, while global demand is expected to surge to $204.9 billion by 2032, driven by 27.08% CAGR. Key drivers include government investments-such as the $7.5 billion allocated under the 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act-and the anticipated 27 million EVs on U.S. roads by 2030.

EVgo's market share of approximately 0.43% according to market data places it as a mid-tier player behind Tesla (54.3% market share in DC fast charging) and Electrify America (7.9%) according to industry reports. Yet its focus on highway and commercial charging, coupled with strategic moves like expanding Tesla-compatible J3400 (NACS) connectors, positions it to capture a larger slice of the growing pie according to market analysis.

Valuation Divergence: High Multiples Amid Negative Earnings

EVgo's valuation metrics tell a more complex story. Its price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 1.5x is significantly higher than the peer average of 1.1x and the industry average of 0.4x. This premium reflects investor optimism about its growth trajectory but contrasts sharply with its financial reality: EVgo's P/E ratio is -7.99, and its EV/EBITDA ratio is -39.78 as of Q3 2025. These negative earnings metrics highlight the company's reliance on capital expenditures and government incentives to fund expansion, with net capital expenditure per stall reduced by 28% through operational efficiencies.

Analysts remain split. A median price target of $6.00, with a range from $4.00 to $12.00, suggests a "strong buy" consensus from 8 of 16 analysts. However, EVgo's valuation is vulnerable to margin pressures and operational challenges, particularly as it competes with Tesla's Supercharger network, which now dominates 40.2% of new port deployments in Q2 2025.

The Long-Term Bet: Can EVgo Turn the Corner?

EVgo's path to profitability hinges on achieving positive Adjusted EBITDA, a goal management targets for Q4 2025. With $201 million in cash reserves and a fully financed growth plan through 2029, the company has the liquidity to avoid dilutive equity raises according to financial analysis. Its strategic focus on highway corridors and commercial charging-segments with higher utilization rates-could drive margin expansion. Additionally, innovations like bi-directional charging and grid-interactive technologies may unlock new revenue streams according to market research.

Yet risks persist. The sector's average EV/EBITDA multiples remain negative, with peers like ChargePoint and Blink Charging reporting LTM EBITDA losses of -$90.7 million and -$49.7 million, respectively. While industry growth is robust, profitability is elusive, and EVgo's valuation assumes a successful transition from capital-intensive expansion to sustainable cash flow generation.

Conclusion: A High-Stakes Gamble on the Future

EVgo's valuation appears to straddle two realities: a near-term financial profile that is unprofitable and a long-term industry outlook that is transformative. Its P/S premium reflects investor faith in its ability to capture a meaningful share of the $24.07 billion U.S. market by 2030. However, this optimism must be tempered by the company's current EBITDA losses and the competitive intensity of the sector.

For EVgo to be considered undervalued, it must demonstrate that its operational efficiencies and strategic partnerships can translate into positive cash flow before 2026. If it succeeds, the stock's current multiples could appear justified. If not, the gap between growth and profitability may widen further, leaving investors with a costly lesson in overhyped expectations.