Evergy's $17.5B Capital Expenditure Plan: A Convergence of Technical Bullish Momentum and Fundamental Strength

Evergy Inc. (NASDAQ: EVRG) has unveiled a $17.5 billion capital expenditure plan spanning 2025 to 2029, a bold commitment to infrastructure modernization, economic development, and sustainability. This strategic allocation, coupled with a robust technical outlook, presents a compelling case for investors seeking long-term value in the utility sector. By aligning the company's fundamentals with its technical momentum, we can assess whether EVRG offers conviction for a buy, hold, or strategic exit.

Fundamental Foundations: A Blueprint for Growth

Evergy's capital plan is meticulously structured to address three pillars: affordability, reliability, and sustainability. The 2025 portion of the plan allocates $926 million to distribution upgrades, $547 million to transmission, and $501 million to new generation capacity. These investments are not merely maintenance-driven but are designed to support a transformative 15 GW economic development pipeline, targeting Tier 1 large-load customers like data centers and industrial facilities.

The company's focus on new customer load is particularly noteworthy. A 500 MW project is already under construction, with operations slated for 2026, and 2,184 MW of new generation projects (including solar and natural gas) approved for 2027–2030. These initiatives align with Evergy's net-zero CO2e emissions target by 2045 and its “all-of-the-above” generation strategy.

Financing the $17.5B plan is equally disciplined: $12.5B from operations, $5.8B in incremental debt, and $2.8B in equity. This mix preserves credit metrics and supports a 60–70% dividend payout ratio, reinforcing shareholder confidence. Evergy's reaffirmed 2025 adjusted EPS guidance of $3.92–$4.12 and a 4–6% CAGR through 2029 further underscore its growth trajectory.

Technical Momentum: A Bullish Tapestry

The technical analysis of EVRG as of August 13, 2025, paints a strong bullish picture. The stock trades at $73.27, with the 5-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages ($73.00, $72.87, $70.25) forming a “golden cross” pattern, signaling upward momentum. The RSI at 61.595 (within the buy zone) and a MACD crossover suggest continued strength. Volume trends, however, show a slight divergence: a 266,000-share decline in the latest session. While this could hint at short-term consolidation, the broader technical indicators—nine buy signals from oscillators, strong support at $73.04, and a projected intraday range of $72.71–$73.83—reinforce the bullish case. The stock's beta of 0.45 also indicates lower volatility compared to the S&P 500, making it a defensive play in a volatile market.

Historical backtests of similar MACD Golden Cross strategies, however, have shown mixed results, with a 6.87% average return over 30 trading days compared to the benchmark's 59.63%. Despite this underperformance, the strategy's ability to preserve capital (0.00% maximum drawdown) highlights its defensive potential in volatile markets.

Convergence of Fundamentals and Technicals

The alignment between Evergy's capital plan and its technical indicators is striking. The $17.5B investment directly addresses the growing demand from its 1.7 million customers and the 4–6 GW of new load from data centers and industrial clients. This demand-driven growth is reflected in the stock's upward trend, supported by strong earnings guidance and a resilient dividend history (34 consecutive years of payouts).

The technicals further validate this narrative. The stock's proximity to its 52-week high ($73.97) and its position above key moving averages suggest that the market is pricing in the company's long-term potential. The upcoming $0.67 per share dividend (ex-dividend on August 22) could also provide a tailwind, as dividend-driven inflows often stabilize utility stocks during market corrections.

Risks and Considerations

While the case for EVRG is compelling, investors must remain cognizant of risks. The volume contraction in recent sessions could signal short-term profit-taking, and regulatory delays in rate cases (e.g., Kansas Central) might temporarily impact cash flows. Additionally, the company's debt-to-equity ratio of 1.49—higher than the industry median of 0.91—requires careful monitoring to ensure leverage remains manageable.

Investment Thesis: Buy with Conviction

Evergy's $17.5B capital plan is a masterstroke of strategic foresight, addressing both immediate infrastructure needs and long-term sustainability goals. The technical indicators, including the golden cross and RSI/MACD signals, reinforce the stock's upward trajectory. For investors, this convergence of fundamentals and technicals presents a rare opportunity to capitalize on a utility stock with growth potential and defensive characteristics.

Recommendation: Buy EVRG at current levels, with a stop-loss at $71.01 (-3.08%) to mitigate downside risk. Hold for the upper half of the projected 4–6% EPS CAGR through 2029, and consider partial exits if the stock retests the $73.04 support level with strong volume.

In a market where utilities are often seen as “safe havens,” Evergy stands out as a rare blend of stability and growth. For those seeking to align their portfolios with companies that are future-proofing their industries, EVRG offers a compelling case.
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