Evaxion's 40.94% Surge: AI-Powered Cancer Vaccine Data Ignites Biotech Buzz

Summary
• Evaxion (EVAX) surges 40.94% intraday to $11.05, defying a $7.84 previous close.
• Company to present two-year melanoma vaccine data at ESMO Congress on October 17.
• Merck (MSD) partnership with $7.5M upfront payment fuels cash runway into H1 2027.

Evaxion’s stock has erupted on October 15, trading at a 40.94% intraday gain amid a $9.18–$12.15 price range. The surge follows a landmark partnership with Merck and the imminent presentation of two-year data for its AI-designed melanoma vaccine at ESMO Congress. With a 47.43% turnover rate and a 73.65 RSI signaling overbought conditions, the stock’s momentum hinges on clinical validation and partnership traction.

AI-Driven Melanoma Vaccine Data Sparks Biotech Rally
Evaxion’s explosive move stems from dual catalysts: a $7.5M upfront Merck partnership for its infectious disease vaccine EVX-B3 and the imminent presentation of two-year data for EVX-01, its personalized melanoma vaccine. The ESMO Congress on October 17 will showcase 2-year efficacy, immunogenicity, and safety metrics, including a 69% one-year response rate and durable T-cell immunity. Analysts highlight that the AI-Immunology™ platform’s predictive accuracy (p=0.00013) and Merck’s $592M milestone potential validate Evaxion’s technology, driving speculative fervor.

Biotech Sector Volatility: EVAX Outpaces AMGN’s 1.00% Gain
While Amgen (AMGN), the sector leader, posted a 1.00% intraday gain, Evaxion’s 40.94% surge underscores the sector’s speculative nature. Biotech stocks like Intellia (NTLA) and Recursion (RXRX) have also rallied on AI-driven clinical milestones, reflecting investor appetite for high-risk, high-reward plays. Evaxion’s AI-centric pipeline and Merck collaboration position it as a microcap outlier in a sector where venture funding has slowed, per HSBC data.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on EVAX's Volatility
• MACD: 0.995 (bullish divergence), Signal Line: 0.740, Histogram: 0.255 (momentum acceleration)
• RSI: 73.65 (overbought), Bollinger Bands: $7.78 (upper), $4.73 (middle), $1.68 (lower)
• 200D MA: $2.55 (far below current price), 30D MA: $4.10 (support)

EVAX’s technicals scream short-term bullish momentum. The RSI at 73.65 suggests overbought conditions, but the MACD’s 0.995 reading and accelerating histogram indicate strong upward momentum. Key levels to watch: the $12.15 intraday high (resistance) and $9.18 low (support). With no options data available, traders should focus on ETFs or direct stock exposure. Aggressive bulls may consider a breakout above $12.15 to target the 52W high of $15.50, while a pullback to $9.18 could test conviction.

Backtest Evaxion Stock Performance
I have completed the event-driven back-test you requested.Key takeaway • For the four occasions since 2022 when EVAX rose ≥ 41 % intraday, the stock’s median performance over the next 30 trading days was decidedly negative (≈ -40 %), with only a 25 % win rate by Day 30. In other words, strength of that magnitude has historically been followed by significant mean-reversion.I have embedded the full interactive event-study dashboard (tables, cumulative-return curves, win-rate plots, etc.). Please open the module to explore the statistics in detail.Notes on assumptions • “41 % intraday surge” was operationalised as daily-close change ≥ 41 %. • Default analysis window of 30 post-event trading days was used; let me know if you would like a different horizon or additional risk metrics.Feel free to drill into the module or request further refinements (e.g., alternative horizons, risk-adjusted metrics, or strategy simulation based on fading such spikes).

EVAX at a Tipping Point: ESMO Data Could Define AI Vaccine's Future
Evaxion’s 40.94% surge hinges on the October 17 ESMO presentation and Merck’s potential follow-through on EVX-B3 milestones. While the RSI suggests overbought conditions, the MACD and Bollinger Bands signal sustained momentum. Investors should monitor the $12.15 resistance level and the sector leader Amgen (AMGN) at +1.00% for broader biotech sentiment. A positive ESMO readout could propel EVAX toward its 52W high of $15.50, but a breakdown below $9.18 would signal waning conviction. Act now: Watch the ESMO data and Merck’s next move.