Evaluating Shiba Inu's Near-Term Price Potential Amid Declining Burn Rate and Key Resistance Levels

Shiba Inu (SHIB), the meme coin that once captured the imagination of retail investors, continues to navigate a complex landscape of technical and on-chain dynamics. As the token approaches the end of 2025, its price action and fundamental metrics reveal a mixed picture. While short-term technical indicators hint at potential bullish momentum, the declining burn rate and weak on-chain activity underscore structural challenges. This analysis synthesizes recent data to assess SHIB's near-term price potential and identify tactical entry points for risk-aware investors.

Burn Rate Trends: A Diminishing Force for Supply Reduction

SHIB's token burn program has long been a cornerstone of its value proposition, but recent data suggests its efficacy is waning. As of December 29, 2025, the burn rate has plummeted by 90.31% in the last 24 hours, with only 1,066,266 SHIB tokens burned during this period. This represents a stark contrast to earlier in the month, when a 1,567% surge in burn activity destroyed over 1.1 million tokens. The current pace of burning-characterized by sporadic, small-scale burns-fails to meaningfully reduce the token's massive circulating supply of ~589.24 trillion SHIB.

The decline in burn activity raises questions about the sustainability of SHIB's supply-side narrative. While token burns can theoretically drive scarcity, their impact is diluted when the rate of new issuance or market selling pressure outweighs these efforts. For SHIB, the combination of a stagnant burn rate and a historically large supply base suggests that on-chain deflationary mechanisms are no longer a reliable catalyst for price appreciation.

Technical Analysis: A Fragile Bullish Case

From a technical perspective, SHIB's price action presents a nuanced outlook. The token is currently trading at $0.000007465, having gained 1.7% in the last 24 hours and 3.4% over seven days. However, this modest resilience masks a broader bearish trend. The 14-day pullback of 8.5% and a 12.4% decline over 30 days highlight the token's struggle to maintain upward momentum.

Key resistance and support levels are critical for near-term price direction. SHIB is currently testing a pivotal support zone near $0.00000664 and facing resistance at $0.00000859. A break above the latter could trigger a short-term rally, but this would require sustained buying pressure-a factor currently absent in the market. The MACD indicator offers a glimmer of hope, with a recent bullish crossover and positive histogram movement suggesting potential for a short-term reversal. However, this optimism is tempered by the RSI, which sits at 38.5, signaling a neutral to bearish bias.

Volume trends further complicate the technical outlook. Trading activity remains weak, with no signs of accumulation or distribution patterns that could signal institutional or whale participation. This lack of conviction among market participants increases the likelihood of a continuation in the downtrend, particularly as SHIB remains below all major moving averages, including the 7-day ($0.00000822), 30-day, and 200-day averages.

On-Chain Metrics: Mixed Signals from Whale Activity

On-chain analytics provide additional insights into SHIB's near-term prospects. Whale activity has been sporadic but notable. For instance, a large holder recently moved 53.59 billion SHIB after a year of inactivity, potentially signaling accumulation. While such movements could indicate long-term bullish sentiment, they lack the scale or frequency to drive a meaningful price rebound.

Address activity also reveals a lack of broad-based demand. The token's on-chain inflows remain subdued, with outflows dominating the landscape. This dynamic suggests that retail and institutional investors are more inclined to sell or hold rather than accumulate SHIB at current levels. The absence of a robust on-chain demand profile further undermines the case for a sustained rally.

Tactical Entry Points: Balancing Risk and Reward

For investors considering tactical entry points, the interplay between technical and on-chain signals is critical. A breakout above $0.00000859 could present a short-term opportunity, particularly if accompanied by a surge in volume and a follow-through move in the MACD. However, this scenario hinges on the assumption that buyers will materialize-a condition not currently supported by on-chain data.

Conversely, a breakdown below the $0.00000664 support level would likely accelerate the downtrend, potentially testing historical lows. In this context, risk-averse investors might consider short-term bearish positions or hedging strategies to mitigate exposure.

A more cautious approach would involve waiting for confirmation of a bullish reversal. This could include a sustained close above the 7-day moving average or a significant increase in burn activity that reignites supply-side optimism. Until such signals emerge, the bearish bias remains intact.

Conclusion: A Cautious Outlook for Near-Term Price Action

Shiba Inu's near-term price potential is constrained by a combination of declining burn rates, weak on-chain fundamentals, and bearish technical indicators. While short-term technicals like the MACD crossover offer a faint bullish signal, these are overshadowed by the broader trend of declining demand and a historically large supply base. For investors, the path forward requires vigilance and a focus on risk management. Tactical opportunities may arise if the token can overcome key resistance levels with strong volume, but the absence of such catalysts suggests that SHIB's immediate future remains uncertain.