Evaluating ON24 (ONTF) as a Pre-IPO Buyout Candidate: Is the 52-Week High a Final Rally or a Strategic Entry Point?

The recent surge in ON24, Inc. (ONTF) shares to a 52-week high of $8.10 per share has sparked intense debate among investors. This price coincides precisely with the all-cash acquisition offer from Cvent, which values the company at $400 million and represents a 62% premium over ON24's closing price on November 10, 2025. For merger arbitrageurs and growth-oriented investors, the question is whether this rally marks the final leg of the deal or presents a strategic entry point. By analyzing the acquisition premium, earnings momentum, and valuation metrics, the case for ON24 as a compelling pre-IPO buyout candidate emerges with compelling clarity.

Merger Arbitrage: A Low-Risk, High-Probability Play

The Cvent acquisition of ON24 is structured as a straightforward all-cash transaction, a critical factor for merger arbitrage strategies. Shareholders will receive $8.10 per share, a price that has already driven ON24's stock to its 52-week peak according to market analysis. The deal's certainty is further bolstered by a voting agreement covering 39% of shares, significantly reducing the risk of shareholder resistance. Regulatory hurdles are not explicitly highlighted in the transaction terms, and the absence of debt financing eliminates refinancing risks.

The timing of the deal-expected to close in the first half of 2026-provides a clear timeline for investors. While the spread between the current price and the offer price appears narrow, the low volatility of all-cash deals and the strong shareholder support make this a low-risk arbitrage opportunity. Historically, such transactions often see shares trade at a slight discount to the offer price until the final stages, particularly when the closing date is several months away. For patient investors, this dynamic could create a margin of safety even at the current 52-week high.

Earnings Momentum: A Catalyst for Outperformance

Beyond the merger arbitrage angle, ON24's earnings performance has been a standout driver of its recent rally. The company has exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters, with its most recent EPS of $0.03 surpassing expectations. While near-term projections for the current fiscal year show a decline in earnings and revenues, the forward-looking outlook is far more optimistic. Analysts anticipate a 233% year-over-year jump in EPS to $0.20 for the next fiscal year, reflecting strong underlying business momentum.

The Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy) underscores ON24's appeal to growth investors according to market analysis. The company's Growth Score of A and Momentum Score of C further reinforce its position as a stock with improving fundamentals and positive technical indicators. However, its Value Score of F-a reflection of elevated valuations-introduces a caveat. For investors focused on merger arbitrage, this discrepancy is less relevant, as the acquisition price effectively caps downside risk. For those betting on standalone growth, the earnings revisions and Zacks Rank provide a compelling case for holding through the transition to private ownership.

Strategic Entry Point or Final Rally?

The convergence of the $8.10 acquisition price and ON24's 52-week high raises a critical question: Is the stock already fully priced for the deal, or does it offer a final opportunity to capture upside? The answer hinges on two factors: the likelihood of the deal closing on schedule and the company's ability to maintain earnings momentum until the transaction completes.

Given the 39% shareholder support and all-cash structure, the former appears highly probable. The latter is also favorable, as ON24's recent earnings outperformance suggests the business is on a stable trajectory. For investors willing to hold until the first half of 2026, the current price represents a strategic entry point rather than a final rally. The acquisition premium, combined with the company's earnings resilience, creates a dual-layered value proposition: a guaranteed return if the deal closes and potential upside if the business outperforms expectations in the interim.

Conclusion

ON24's position at its 52-week high is not a signal to exit but an invitation to reassess. The Cvent acquisition offers a clear floor at $8.10 per share, while the company's earnings momentum and Zacks Rank provide a ceiling for further appreciation. For investors with a medium-term horizon, this is a rare alignment of merger arbitrage certainty and growth potential. The risks are minimal, and the rewards-both in terms of capital preservation and upside-are substantial. As the market approaches the closing date, ON24 remains a stock where patience and precision can yield outsized returns.