Evaluating Market Volatility Risks from Major Token Unlocks in Late November 2025

In late November 2025, the cryptocurrency market faces a critical juncture as nine high-profile projects-HYPE, SOL, KMNO, TRUMP, XPL, WLD, DOGE, AVAX, and TAO-prepare for major token unlocks. These events, ranging from one-time releases to daily linear distributions, pose significant risks to price stability, particularly for projects with high unlock percentages relative to their circulating supplies. This analysis examines the unlock structures, their potential market impacts, and the broader implications for investors navigating this volatile period.

Unlock Structures and Circulating Supply Pressures

The scale and structure of token unlocks vary widely across projects. KMNO stands out with a one-time unlock of 230 million tokens ($11.96 million), representing 6.92% of its circulating supply-the highest percentage among the nine projects according to blockonomi. This large supply injection could overwhelm market absorption, especially if sellers prioritize liquidity. In contrast, SOL employs a daily linear unlock of 490,350 tokens ($65.06 million), equivalent to 0.09% of its supply according to blockonomi. While smaller in percentage terms, the sheer dollar value of SOL's unlock ($65 million daily) could still exert downward pressure, particularly if trading volume is insufficient to absorb the inflow.

Projects like HYPE and TRUMP fall between these extremes. HYPE's one-time unlock of $318.17 million (3.66% of supply) and TRUMP's 4.89 million tokens ($31.25 million, 2.45% of supply) represent mid-tier risks according to blockonomi. However, historical data from XPL-which saw an 85% price decline from $1.50 to $0.20 after a 4.71% supply unlock-highlights the fragility of projects with weak fundamentals or low liquidity according to Yahoo Finance.

Comparative Analysis of Unlock Impacts

The unlock's impact hinges on three factors: unlock percentage, dollar value, and market depth. For instance, DOGE's unlock of 95.51 million tokens ($14.10 million, 0.06% of supply) is relatively small in percentage terms, but its low token price could amplify retail selling pressure according to blockonomi. Conversely, AVAX's 0.16% unlock ($9.38 million) and TAO's 1.45% unlock ($7.50 million) suggest moderate risks, contingent on market sentiment and institutional participation according to blockonomi.

The WLD unlock (37.23 million tokens, $23.03 million, 1.59% of supply) further illustrates the tension between supply and demand. While the percentage is modest, the project's trading volume and market cap (both unspecified in available data) will determine whether the unlock is absorbed smoothly or triggers a sell-off according to blockonomi.

Price Pressure Scenarios and Investor Considerations

One-time unlocks, such as those in KMNO and HYPE, are particularly volatile. A sudden influx of tokens into the market can trigger panic selling, especially if the unlock coincides with bearish macroeconomic conditions. For example, XPL's 85% price drop post-unlock underscores the risks of concentrated selling pressure according to Yahoo Finance. Linear unlocks, like SOL's daily release, may mitigate short-term volatility but create prolonged uncertainty, as investors anticipate gradual supply increases.

Investors should also consider liquidity dynamics. Projects with low trading volumes-such as XPL-are more susceptible to slippage and price manipulation during unlocks. Conversely, high-liquidity assets like SOL may experience less immediate volatility, though sustained unlocks could erode long-term value.

Conclusion: Navigating the November 2025 Unlock Wave

The late November 2025 unlock wave presents a mixed landscape for investors. While projects like SOL and DOGE may weather their unlocks due to large market caps and established liquidity, others-KMNO, XPL, and TRUMP-face heightened risks of price erosion. Investors should prioritize projects with strong fundamentals, robust liquidity, and unlock structures that minimize sudden supply shocks. As always, diversification and close monitoring of market sentiment will be critical in mitigating the risks of this volatile period.