Evaluating Earnings Momentum: Key Stocks to Watch on December 18, 2025

The fourth quarter of 2025 has delivered a mixed bag of results for investors, with sector-specific dynamics shaping the performance of key stocks. As the year closes, three companies-Accenture (ACN), CarMax (KMX), and FedEx (FDX)-stand out for their earnings surprises, revenue forecasts, and strategic positioning within their industries. This analysis evaluates their Q4 2025 results, sector context, and implications for 2026, offering insights into strategic entry or exit points for investors.

Accenture (ACN): AI-Driven Growth and Shareholder Returns

Accenture's Q4 2025 results underscored its dominance in the IT services sector. The company reported revenue of $18.74 billion, surpassing estimates by 1.2% and reflecting 6% year-over-year growth. Adjusted EPS of $3.94 exceeded expectations by 5.9%, driven by strong demand for digital transformation and AI consulting. Notably, advanced AI bookings totaled $2.2 billion in the quarter, though Accenture announced it would discontinue separate reporting of AI metrics, integrating them into broader client engagements.

The company's full-year 2026 guidance projects revenue growth of 2–5% in local currency, excluding federal business gains, while Q1 2026 revenue is forecast at $17.68–$18.75 billion. Shareholder returns remain a priority, with a $5 billion increase in share repurchase authority and a 10% dividend hike. In a sector where operating margins averaged 14.7% over five years, Accenture's 15.3% margin in Q4 2025 highlights its efficiency.

Investment Implications: Accenture's resilience in a slowing global IT market positions it as a defensive play. However, the discontinuation of AI-specific metrics may obscure visibility into its high-growth initiatives. Investors should monitor its ability to sustain margins amid macroeconomic headwinds.

FedEx (FDX): Navigating Logistics Challenges with Restructuring

FedEx's Q4 2025 performance was a study in contrasts. Revenue surged to $23.47 billion, a 6.8% year-over-year increase, with non-GAAP EPS of $4.82 beating estimates by 17.2%. Cost reductions under its Network 2.0 program drove an 8% rise in adjusted operating income. Yet, the company slashed FY2025 adjusted EPS guidance to $18–$18.60, citing the loss of the U.S. Postal Service contract and industrial sector weakness.

For 2026, FedEx raised revenue growth expectations to 5–6% and announced plans to spin off FedEx Freight by June 2026, aiming to streamline operations. Shareholder returns also gained traction, with $500 million in share repurchases during Q4. However, the logistics sector remains under pressure: global trade uncertainty, excess freight capacity, and a projected 2.4% growth rate for 2026.

Investment Implications: FedEx's restructuring efforts and focus on cost discipline are commendable, but its exposure to volatile freight markets and trade policy risks remain concerns. The Freight spin-off could unlock value, but investors must weigh near-term guidance cuts against long-term efficiency gains.

CarMax (KMX): Margin Pressures and Sector Volatility

CarMax's Q4 2025 results reflected the turbulence in the used car retail sector. Revenue of $5.79 billion beat estimates by 3.3% but fell 6.9% year-over-year, while same-store sales declined 8.1%. A -1% operating margin-a stark drop from 3.2% in Q4 2024-highlighted affordability challenges linked to high interest rates. However, non-GAAP EPS of $0.51 exceeded forecasts by 66%, driven by a 13.9% increase in gross profit.

Sector dynamics remain complex: used vehicle inventory hit 2.31 million units in December 2025, a 6% annual increase, while the retail-wholesale price gap widened to $14,747-up from $9,000 in 2021-supporting dealer margins. CarMax's strategy to reduce price gaps, boost marketing, and open six new stores in 2026 aims to regain market share. Yet, Wedbush analysts now project Carvana to overtake CarMax in retail sales by Q4 2026.

Investment Implications: CarMax's operational adjustments could stabilize its position in a margin-supportive sector, but execution risks and competitive threats loom large. Investors may find value in its Q1 2026 results, which showed a 42.3% rise in EPS and 8.1% growth in comparable store sales.

Strategic Entry/Exit Points

• Accenture: A buy candidate for investors seeking exposure to AI-driven IT services, provided its margin resilience holds.
• FedEx: A cautious hold, with potential for upside post-Freight spin-off but contingent on trade policy stability.
• CarMax: A speculative buy for those betting on sector stabilization and management's turnaround plan, though near-term volatility is likely.

As 2026 unfolds, sector-specific catalysts-including AI adoption, logistics restructuring, and used car market normalization-will define these stocks' trajectories. Investors must balance optimism with caution, leveraging Q4 2025 data as a barometer for future performance.