EV Stock Surge: Lucid Motors, QuantumScape, and Navitas Semiconductor Lead the Charge
Monday, Nov 25, 2024 5:06 pm ET
4min read Shares of electric vehicle (EV) and related stocks Lucid Motors (LCID), QuantumScape (QS), and Navitas Semiconductor Corporation (NVTS) rallied today, up 3.3%, 3.7%, and 14.9%, respectively, in Monday's trading. The commonality among all three stocks is their leverage to the EV and clean energy markets, which have taken a pounding this year. But with these stocks now trading at severely depressed levels, any positive news was likely to spark a relief rally. And the EV sector got some of that very relief today.
California to make up for lost federal EV tax credit
It had been feared by many investors in the EV and renewable energy space that incentives for clean energy under the Biden administration's Inflation Reduction Act would be repealed by the incoming Trump administration. Notably, a repeal of the federal tax credit for EV purchases could lead to a 30% decline in EV sales, according to a recent paper led by researchers at UC Berkeley. But today, California Governor Gavin Newsom announced that the state would make up the federal EV tax credit, which goes up to $7,500 per purchase, if that federal tax credit is repealed. According to Newsom, the money could come from California's Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund, which is paid for by polluters under the state's cap-and-trade program.
Interestingly, Newsom is proposing market-share restrictions on the potential new state tax credit, which would likely cut Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) out of qualifying. Although Tesla's market share has been declining in California, it still accounted for 54.5% of all new EV registrations in the state this year, down from 63% in 2023. The proposal smells of a potential reprisal toward Elon Musk, who has been involved in several public fights with Newsom over the past few years and who was a big donor to President Trump. For its part, the governor's office merely said the restriction was about "creating the market conditions for more of these car makers to take root."
A Tesla exclusion has the potential to disproportionately benefit Lucid, which makes high-end EVs that compete with Tesla's Model S and X vehicles. Lucid has been making some progress with its high-end Air sedans and recently launched its Gravity SUV. However, Lucid's sales are still far below its expenses, with massive losses accumulating. In October, Lucid diluted its shareholders again, selling over 600 million shares to Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) even with the stock at multiyear lows. So, it could certainly use California's help.
Additionally, QuantumScape is a pre-revenue company aiming to commercialize its solid-state battery technology. That technology would also compete with the lithium-ion batteries used by basically all EV automakers today, including Tesla, which has invested in its own lithium-ion battery technology and production. Finally, Navitas is a small-cap chipmaker that produces silicon carbide and gallium nitride chips for the EV, solar, and data center markets. Perhaps due to its small size and the fact it's down a whopping 65% on the year, its stock rallied the hardest on the prospect of better EV sales.
Turnaround or dead-cat bounce?
So, is today's EV-related rally the beginning of a turnaround or a dead-cat bounce? As of now, it's pretty hard to say. The EV market has been in a severe slowdown this year, even with the EV tax credit in place, due to higher interest rates and a post-pandemic hangover. Furthermore, it's difficult to know even if the tax credit will be repealed and what exactly California's remedy will look like. While it's tempting to call a bottom in EV stocks, these three stocks still seem pretty risky due to their loss-making nature. For those willing to gamble on a bottom in the EV market, you might want to look at more stable, established companies like Amazon and Apple, which can provide a solid foundation for your portfolio during market downturns.
California to make up for lost federal EV tax credit
It had been feared by many investors in the EV and renewable energy space that incentives for clean energy under the Biden administration's Inflation Reduction Act would be repealed by the incoming Trump administration. Notably, a repeal of the federal tax credit for EV purchases could lead to a 30% decline in EV sales, according to a recent paper led by researchers at UC Berkeley. But today, California Governor Gavin Newsom announced that the state would make up the federal EV tax credit, which goes up to $7,500 per purchase, if that federal tax credit is repealed. According to Newsom, the money could come from California's Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund, which is paid for by polluters under the state's cap-and-trade program.
Interestingly, Newsom is proposing market-share restrictions on the potential new state tax credit, which would likely cut Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) out of qualifying. Although Tesla's market share has been declining in California, it still accounted for 54.5% of all new EV registrations in the state this year, down from 63% in 2023. The proposal smells of a potential reprisal toward Elon Musk, who has been involved in several public fights with Newsom over the past few years and who was a big donor to President Trump. For its part, the governor's office merely said the restriction was about "creating the market conditions for more of these car makers to take root."
A Tesla exclusion has the potential to disproportionately benefit Lucid, which makes high-end EVs that compete with Tesla's Model S and X vehicles. Lucid has been making some progress with its high-end Air sedans and recently launched its Gravity SUV. However, Lucid's sales are still far below its expenses, with massive losses accumulating. In October, Lucid diluted its shareholders again, selling over 600 million shares to Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) even with the stock at multiyear lows. So, it could certainly use California's help.
Additionally, QuantumScape is a pre-revenue company aiming to commercialize its solid-state battery technology. That technology would also compete with the lithium-ion batteries used by basically all EV automakers today, including Tesla, which has invested in its own lithium-ion battery technology and production. Finally, Navitas is a small-cap chipmaker that produces silicon carbide and gallium nitride chips for the EV, solar, and data center markets. Perhaps due to its small size and the fact it's down a whopping 65% on the year, its stock rallied the hardest on the prospect of better EV sales.
Turnaround or dead-cat bounce?
So, is today's EV-related rally the beginning of a turnaround or a dead-cat bounce? As of now, it's pretty hard to say. The EV market has been in a severe slowdown this year, even with the EV tax credit in place, due to higher interest rates and a post-pandemic hangover. Furthermore, it's difficult to know even if the tax credit will be repealed and what exactly California's remedy will look like. While it's tempting to call a bottom in EV stocks, these three stocks still seem pretty risky due to their loss-making nature. For those willing to gamble on a bottom in the EV market, you might want to look at more stable, established companies like Amazon and Apple, which can provide a solid foundation for your portfolio during market downturns.
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