EURUSD Long Setup: Bounce Off 1.1445 Demand Zone Targets 1.1560 Breakout and Elliott Wave 1.2088–1.2400 Rally

The EURUSD is locked in a clear bullish technical structure, trading within a defined ascending channel. The lower boundary of this channel sits at 1.1445, acting as a critical support level. The upper boundary is capped at 1.1560, a key resistance zone. The recent move down to 1.1522 is a corrective pullback from the channel's upper edge, testing that vital 1.1445 support. This action confirms the channel's integrity and sets up a classic bounce play.

On the weekly chart, the setup points to a larger degree impulse wave. An ascending wave of larger degree B is forming, with the third wave of that impulse likely underway. This suggests the bullish momentum from the prior leg is resuming. The daily structure supports this, showing the third wave of the corrective sequence has likely completed its second leg and is now initiating a fresh advance.

For traders, the structure is straightforward. The primary bullish thesis hinges on the price holding above the channel's floor at 1.1445. A break below that level would invalidate the channel and signal a shift to a bearish range, with targets down toward 1.1185. Until then, the path of least resistance is up. The immediate focus is on the upper channel boundary near 1.1560, which is also a major resistance level. A decisive break above that level would confirm the third wave's start and open the door to the next major target.

Key Levels: The Supply/Demand Zones

The action now hinges on a few decisive price zones. The immediate bearish resistance is clear: 1.1665–1.1680 is the zone where fresh sellers are positioned. This is the first hurdle a rally must clear. A rejection here would likely send price back down toward the interim support at 1.1590.

The critical bullish breakout level is 1.1560. A decisive break above this upper channel boundary is the signal that the corrective wave is over and the third wave of the impulse is fully underway. That move would invalidate the current range and open the path to higher targets.

For a successful breakout, the primary long-term target is 1.2088–1.2400, based on Elliott Wave projections. This is the next major supply zone to watch. The setup is a classic test of supply and demand: the market is currently testing the lower demand zone at 1.1445. If that holds, buyers have a clear path to challenge the 1.1560 resistance and beyond. A break below 1.1445, however, would shift the balance decisively to sellers and trigger a move toward the alternative scenario's target of 1.1185. The levels are clear; the market is now in a position to confirm which side wins.

Entry, Exit, and Risk Management Plan

The technical setup provides a clear, actionable plan. For a long trade, the entry is simple: wait for a confirmed bounce above the channel's lower boundary at 1.1445. This level is the critical demand zone. A clean break above it confirms the bullish channel remains intact and signals buyers are in control.

The risk management is equally straightforward. Place a stop-loss order just below that key support, at 1.1445. A decisive break below this level invalidates the entire bullish channel thesis. It would shift the supply/demand balance decisively to the sellers and trigger the alternative scenario, with price likely targeting the next major support at 1.1185–1.0990.

For profit targets, the plan is sequential. The immediate target is the upper channel boundary and major resistance at 1.1560. A breakout above this level would confirm the start of the third wave impulse and open the path to the next major supply zone. The primary long-term target, based on the Elliott Wave projection, is the range of 1.2088–1.2400.

In short, the plan is to buy the bounce off 1.1445 with a stop below it. The first profit target is 1.1560, with the ultimate goal of 1.2088–1.2400. Any move below 1.1445 means the trade is over, and the market is likely heading lower. This is a classic supply/demand trade with defined risk and reward.

Catalysts and What to Watch

The near-term catalyst is a decisive break of the 1.1560 resistance level. That move would confirm the bullish breakout and trigger a rally toward the next major supply zone. Until then, the market is in a range, and any bounce off key support is the primary setup.

Watch for a rejection at 1.1590, which is the weekly Camarilla pivot's interim support. This zone is a classic bounce point. A strong rejection here would signal buyers are stepping in to defend the channel's lower boundary. Conversely, a break below 1.1590 would shift momentum toward the sellers and target the next support at 1.1560.

The weekly Camarilla pivot levels are critical for gauging the range's integrity. The interim support at 1.1590 and the interim resistance at 1.1665–1.1680 define the current trading band. A shift in these levels, particularly a break below 1.1590, would signal the range is breaking down and the path of least resistance is lower. For now, the market is testing the bottom of that band.