European Gas Prices Find Relief as Storage Injections Gain Momentum, But Risks Linger

European natural gas prices have shown a notable retreat in April 2025, with the Dutch TTF benchmark dropping below €40/MWh for the first time in six months. This easing reflects progress in refilling storage facilities, which began injections in late March after hitting a two-year low of 34% of capacity on April 1. However, persistent supply challenges and structural imbalances suggest caution remains warranted for investors.

The Storage Refill Race

The EU’s gas storage levels, a critical barometer of energy security, have started their annual climb. While the 34% capacity on April 1 marked the lowest opening point since 2023, injections have since edged levels upward to ~35% by April 7, signaling a return to seasonal norms. Yet, this is still 480 Bcf below 2024 levels and 74 Bcf beneath the five-year average, per Gas Infrastructure Europe.

The EU’s mandate to fill storage to 90% by November 1 looms large. Analysts warn that achieving this target will require a 20% increase in LNG imports compared to summer 2024, amid competition from Asia’s rebounding demand and logistical hurdles like repairs at Australia’s Ichthys LNG facility.

Price Volatility Amid Mixed Signals

The TTF gas futures price for May delivery fell to €34.5/MWh on April 14, marking a 39% decline from its March 2022 peak. This drop reflects reduced near-term supply fears, driven by ENI’s 16% drop in Q2 2024 industrial demand and early refill progress. However, prices stabilized around €35–36/MWh by mid-April, as lingering risks—including Norwegian field outages and U.S. hurricane season uncertainty—prevented a deeper decline.

Longer-term forecasts are less sanguine. Trading Economics models predict TTF prices could rise to €44.42/MWh by early 2026, citing structural deficits: declining domestic production (e.g., the Netherlands’ Groningen field) and reliance on costly LNG imports.

Navigating the Investment Landscape

For investors, the interplay of storage dynamics and geopolitical risks defines the opportunity. Near-term gains may come from equities tied to storage infrastructure or utilities benefiting from lower input costs. However, the inverted summer-winter price spread (€41.29/MWh for summer 2025 vs. €39.26/MWh for winter) signals a market skeptical of refill success, potentially favoring gas producers like TotalEnergies (TTE.F) or Equinor (EQNR).

Meanwhile, the €10 billion cost to refill EU storage in 2025 highlights financial pressures on energy-intensive industries, which could weigh on equities like BASF (BAS.F) or Solvay (SOLB.BR).

Conclusion: A Delicate Balance

While April’s storage progress and price dip offer respite, the EU’s energy markets remain a tightrope walk. The 34–35% storage range as of mid-April underscores the uphill climb to meet the 90% target, especially with supply constraints and geopolitical risks (e.g., Russian pipeline cuts) looming. Investors should prioritize companies with exposure to LNG infrastructure or demand-independent pricing, while monitoring storage levels and TTF price trends.

With €44/MWh on the horizon, the path to energy stability is fraught—but for those attuned to the data, it offers both pitfalls and profit.

This analysis synthesizes storage dynamics, price trends, and macroeconomic factors to guide strategic decisions in an increasingly volatile energy landscape.