Euro to Reach 1.13 Dollars by Year-End, Says Analyst

Jason Schenker, a prominent analyst who has accurately predicted the euro's rise against the U.S. dollar this year, has forecasted that the euro will reach 1.13 dollars by the end of the year. This prediction represents a 4.5% increase from its current value. Schenker, who operates Prestige Economics based in Austin, Texas, is one of the few analysts who have made such a bullish call on the euro.

Schenker's optimism stands in contrast to the broader consensus among strategists. In a recent survey, only six out of 46 strategists predicted that the euro would rise above 1.10 dollars by the end of the year. The majority of the respondents, 40 in total, expect the euro to experience more moderate fluctuations. Some even anticipate that the euro could drop to parity with the U.S. dollar.

Schenker's bullish stance on the euro is based on several factors. He believes that the European Central Bank's monetary policy, which has been more accommodative compared to the Federal Reserve, will continue to support the euro. Additionally, Schenker points to the improving economic outlook in the Eurozone, which he believes will drive further appreciation of the euro against the U.S. dollar.

The analyst's prediction comes at a time when the euro has been facing significant headwinds, including geopolitical tensions and concerns about the region's economic recovery. However, Schenker remains confident that the euro will overcome these challenges and strengthen against the U.S. dollar by the end of the year. His forecast, if realized, would mark a significant turnaround for the euro, which has struggled to gain traction against the U.S. dollar in recent months.

Schenker's prediction is partly based on the signs of economic weakness in the U.S. As the market braces for the impact of trade tariffs on the U.S. economy, he maintains his expectation. "Due to policy uncertainty — and due to the increasing uncertainty of broader tariffs, your confidence may be eroded," he warned. "Rather than being bullish on the euro, I am bearish on the dollar."

His advice on the euro has been successful, largely due to Germany's unexpected announcement in early March of a spending plan. This plan committed billions of dollars to defense and infrastructure spending. Schenker's prediction, if it comes to fruition, would represent a notable shift in the euro's trajectory, which has faced challenges in recent months.