EUR/USD Needs 1.1709 to Prove the 1.1400 Bounce Is Real

1.1709 is the level that would validate the rebound from 1.1400

EUR/USD must clear 1.17085 to show that the rebound from 1.1400 is more than a routine bounce. The late-July move out of that area improved the near-term setup, but the pair still needs to break the resistance zone that can turn a short-lived recovery into something more durable. That is especially true now, because price is already running into moving-average supply rather than drifting toward it.

The first fight is around the 1.1510 area and the 100-day SMA near 1.1569. Above that zone, 1.1510 remains the first upside barrier, while 1.1425 is the support level traders will watch if momentum fades.

Macro support helps the bull case, but it is not enough on its own

The bull case depends on more than charts. After the ECB's 25 basis points increase in June and a July hold, the euro still has some policy support behind it. That does not require a full hawkish reset; it only requires enough residual euro strength to keep the pair from losing ground as the US Dollar steadies.

Scotiabank's view adds another layer: the EUR's recent recovery has closely tracked yield spreads, with spot trading close to its fair-value estimate. If that framework is right, the rebound from 1.1400 looks like more than a squeeze. It looks like a move toward a more balanced policy and valuation setup. The key caveat is also clear: further gains likely still require another shift in relative central-bank outlook or better sentiment.

Technical momentum is constructive, but overbought conditions still matter

The daily technical screen still shows a Strong Buy from moving averages and other indicators, while the 14-day RSI at 77.008 points to overbought conditions. Bulls can argue that this kind of momentum often supports a breakout. Bears will argue that it increases the risk of a stall, especially if the dollar firms on safe-haven boost.

That tension matters because EUR/USD is not just fighting one resistance line. It is working through several layers of moving-average supply at the same time momentum is becoming stretched.

The confirmation ladder: 1.1510, 1.1629, then 1.17085

After the rebound from 1.1400, the setup becomes more about execution than narrative. In order, EUR/USD still has to clear:

• 1.1510 first
• 1.1629 second
• 1.17085 last

If buyers cannot clear that sequence, the bounce is still mostly pressure into supply rather than a confirmed breakout.

What would confirm the breakout

• A firm move through 1.1510 would ease the near-term bearish posture.
• A clean break of 1.1629 would remove the next structural ceiling.
• A decisive push through 1.17085 would be the clearest sign that the rebound is turning into a tradable trend.

What would invalidate it

• A breakout is only meaningful if broken resistance begins to hold as support on retests.
• If 1.1510, 1.1629, or 1.17085 keep getting rejected immediately after being touched, the market is still pushing higher prices into supply.
• The key downside watchpoint is 1.1425. If that level breaks after the rebound from 1.1400, the uptrend story is materially weaker.

Positioning takeaway: stay constructive only while buyers keep turning those levels from resistance into support. If failed retests multiply, treat the sequence as invalidation rather than delay.