EUR/PLN Currency Pair: Assessing Opportunities Amid InG's Outlook and Poland's Macroeconomic Resilience

The EUR/PLN currency pair has long been a focal point for investors navigating emerging market (EM) forex strategies, balancing macroeconomic fundamentals with geopolitical and monetary policy dynamics. As 2025 unfolds, Poland's economic resilience and the National Bank of Poland's (NBP) dovish pivot have positioned the zloty as a case study in strategic FX positioning. This analysis evaluates the EUR/PLN outlook through the lens of ING Bank's forecasts, Poland's macroeconomic performance, and its comparative positioning within EM currency markets.

ING Bank's Neutral-to-Bearish EUR/PLN Outlook

ING Bank's Q3 2025 research underscores a stable EUR/PLN rate of 4.25, with a neutral bias for the near term and a bearish tilt in the medium termEMEA FX Talking: Monetary divergence starts to …^[1]. The NBP's dovish pivot—marked by a July rate cut and a projected terminal rate of 3.5%—has weakened the zloty's appeal relative to the euroEMEA FX Talking: Monetary divergence starts to …^[1]. This aligns with broader Central and Eastern European (CEE) trends, where the zloty has underperformed the Hungarian forint (HUF) and Czech koruna (CZK) despite its structural advantagesFX Watch – 2025 PLN outlook: restarting the easing cycle?^[2]. Political uncertainties, including a right-wing presidential victory and fiscal consolidation challenges, further cloud the zloty's trajectoryEMEA FX Talking: Monetary divergence starts to …^[1].

However, ING's forecasts suggest limited directional movement in EUR/PLN over the next 12 months, with the pair expected to remain range-bound around 4.25EMEA FX Talking: Monetary divergence starts to …^[1]. This stability is attributed to capital repatriation flows from the U.S. to Europe and Poland's outperformance against other EM economiesEconomic forecast for Poland - Economy and Finance^[4]. By December 2025, external forecasts from LongForecast and ExchangeRates.org.uk project a gradual rise to 4.273–4.2681, reflecting modest appreciation driven by improved trade dynamics and EU-funded investmentsEuro to Polish Zloty Forecast 2025: EUR/PLN Expected to Reach …^[3].

Poland's Macroeconomic Resilience: A Pillar of FX Stability

Poland's economic fundamentals provide a counterweight to the zloty's monetary policy headwinds. The European Commission forecasts 3.3% GDP growth in 2025, fueled by robust private consumption and EU-funded public investmentEconomic forecast for Poland - Economy and Finance^[4]. This outpaces the Eurozone average, supported by rising real wages and receding inflationary pressures (3.7% in 2024, with further moderation expected in 2025–2026)Economic forecast for Poland - Economy and Finance^[4].

Inflation moderation, however, is constrained by wage pressures in services, which could delay the NBP's easing cycleEconomic forecast for Poland - Economy and Finance^[4]. Meanwhile, the trade balance faces headwinds from global uncertainties but is expected to narrow as exports recoverEuro to Polish Zloty Forecast 2025: EUR/PLN Expected to Reach …^[3]. Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, though temporarily dented by global economic uncertainty, remain buoyant due to Poland's competitive labor costs and productivity gainsEuro to Polish Zloty Forecast 2025: EUR/PLN Expected to Reach …^[3].

Strategic Positioning in EM FX: EUR/PLN vs. Peers

Compared to other EM currencies, EUR/PLN offers a nuanced risk-reward profile. While the Hungarian forint and Czech koruna have outperformed the zloty, Poland's limited exposure to U.S. tariffs (U.S. accounts for just 6% of its exports) and strong domestic demand provide a buffer against global shocksEMEA FX Talking: Monetary divergence starts to …^[1]. The Czech koruna, for instance, benefits from a tighter labor market and hawkish CNB policy, but its vulnerability to ECB rate cuts remains a concernFX Watch – 2025 PLN outlook: restarting the easing cycle?^[2].

Emerging market currencies broadly face headwinds from U.S. dollar strength and tariff uncertainties, particularly under the Trump administration's trade policiesEconomic forecast for Poland - Economy and Finance^[4]. Yet, Poland's resilience—rooted in CEE outperformance and structural economic strengths—positions EUR/PLN as a relatively stable EM bet. Schroders notes that a diversified EM local debt portfolio could yield 11%+ returns in 2025, with high-yield bonds from countries like Hungary and Brazil offering complementary opportunitiesEmerging markets debt investment views – Q3 2025^[5].

Risk Factors and Investor Considerations

Key risks for EUR/PLN include the NBP's prolonged dovish stance, which could erode the zloty's value, and political polarization in Poland, which may delay fiscal reformsEMEA FX Talking: Monetary divergence starts to …^[1]. Additionally, U.S. dollar strength and trade policy shifts pose systemic risks to EM currencies, with the zloty's exposure to global capital flows making it susceptible to sudden outflowsEconomic forecast for Poland - Economy and Finance^[4].

However, the zloty's resilience in Q3 2025—losing only 2% against the euro since March—highlights its relative stability in a volatile EM landscapeFX Watch – 2025 PLN outlook: restarting the easing cycle?^[2]. Investors should monitor the NBP's rate-cut trajectory and Poland's fiscal consolidation efforts, which could unlock long-term appreciation potential.

Conclusion

The EUR/PLN currency pair embodies the delicate balance between EM growth potential and macroeconomic headwinds. While ING Bank's neutral-to-bearish outlook and the NBP's dovish policy temper short-term optimism, Poland's macroeconomic resilience and CEE outperformance offer a compelling case for strategic FX positioning. For investors, EUR/PLN represents a moderate EM bet, with its stability and gradual appreciation potential making it a viable complement to higher-yielding EM currencies like the Hungarian forint or Brazilian real.