EUR Outlook 2026: Bank of America's Bullish Forecast Reveals a Resilient Path Forward

The euro's trajectory in 2026 is shaping up to be one of the most compelling narratives in global markets, driven by a confluence of macroeconomic rebalancing, ECB policy normalization, and structural shifts in the Eurozone. Bank of America (BofA) has emerged as a vocal optimist, forecasting EUR/USD to reach as U.S. rate cuts, German fiscal stimulus, and ECB easing create a favorable backdrop for the euro. This analysis unpacks the strategic implications for investors seeking to allocate to euro-denominated assets, balancing the opportunities and risks inherent in this evolving landscape.

ECB Policy Normalization and Eurozone Rebalancing

The European Central Bank (ECB) is poised to play a pivotal role in the euro's resurgence. BofA economists anticipate , with more than one reduction expected over the next 18 months. This dovish pivot aligns with the ECB's acknowledgment that inflation is trending toward its 2% target, supported by reduced energy dependency and improved wage dynamics. Meanwhile, structural reforms-such as Germany's €500 billion infrastructure program and broader fiscal integration-signal a shift from austerity to growth-oriented policies. These developments create a fertile ground for reflationary forces, particularly in sectors tied to productivity and capital expenditures.

Strategic Allocation to Euro-Denominated Assets

Equities: AI-Driven Productivity and Infrastructure

BofA's 2026 outlook emphasizes AI and infrastructure as key growth engines for the Eurozone. The firm highlights that corporate earnings are expected to benefit from falling interest rates and fiscal tailwinds, with AI-related investments in data centers and digital platforms acting as a catalyst. Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. Equity and Quantitative Strategy, recommends focusing on companies receiving capital rather than those borrowing it, underscoring the importance of a productivity-driven economy. Sectors like technology, utilities, and financials are particularly well-positioned to capitalize on this rebalancing.

Bonds: Navigating Yield Curves and Credit Spreads

The bond market is set for a nuanced shift. While the ECB's quantitative tightening will reduce its purchases of government bonds, increased sovereign and corporate issuance is expected to drive yields higher. BofA projects German bund yields to rise across all maturities by early 2027, reflecting stronger fiscal demand and investor appetite. For corporate bonds, investment-grade spreads may widen modestly, while high-yield sectors like autos and telecoms could outperform due to their exposure to AI-driven demand. Investors should prioritize quality and liquidity, particularly as stretched valuations in concentrated markets raise the risk of sharp corrections.

Real Estate: Infrastructure and Digital Assets

Eurozone real estate is gaining traction as a strategic allocation, particularly in infrastructure and data center development. With the ECB's dovish stance and fiscal stimulus fueling capital expenditures, real estate assets tied to AI infrastructure and energy grid modernization are expected to outperform. European investors are also reallocating capital toward domestic assets, reflecting a broader shift from austerity to growth-oriented policies. This trend is further supported by improved financing conditions and resilient domestic demand.

Risks and Considerations

While the outlook is optimistic, investors must remain vigilant. Inflation persistence and AI-driven market volatility remain key risks, with BofA cautioning that overvalued equities could face corrections. Additionally, geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainties-particularly U.S. tariffs on European exports- pose headwinds for Germany and Italy. The ECB's policy path is also subject to revision if inflationary pressures resurface or political risks in France and Germany escalate.

Conclusion

Bank of America's bullish EUR forecast for 2026 is underpinned by a compelling mix of ECB normalization, fiscal stimulus, and structural rebalancing. For investors, the path forward lies in strategic allocations to euro-denominated assets that align with these macroeconomic tailwinds. Equities in AI-driven sectors, high-yield corporate bonds, and infrastructure-linked real estate offer attractive opportunities, provided risks are carefully managed. As the Eurozone transitions from resilience to reflation, the euro's strength may well become a cornerstone of global investment strategies in 2026.