EULUSDC Market Overview for 2025-11-11

Summary
• Euler/USDC (EULUSDC) closed at 5.972, down 6.1% from its 24-hour high at 6.356.
• Key support appears to be near 5.95, with a breakdown in bullish momentum.
• Volatility expanded significantly, with a 24-hour range of 44.5 cents and notable volume spikes.
• RSI-14 remains below 30, indicating oversold conditions, but no strong bounce has formed.
• Price tested and rejected Fibonacci levels around 6.15-6.17, highlighting bearish sentiment.

The 24-hour candle for Euler/USDC opened at 6.162 (12:00 ET–1), reached a high of 6.356, and hit a low of 5.907 before closing at 5.972 (12:00 ET today). The total trading volume was approximately 116,035.84 units, with a notional turnover of $710,353. The price action indicates bearish exhaustion and a potential short-term bottoming process.

Structure & Formations

Price action on EULUSDC has been characterized by a sharp selloff in the early hours of 2025-11-11, where a large bearish engulfing pattern formed after a brief rally. The pair has since traded in a tight range around 5.97, with a key 15-minute bearish inside bar indicating a potential short-term pause in selling pressure. A strong support level appears to be forming near 5.95, which has been tested twice with partial rejections. Resistance is currently at 6.02, with a larger psychological level at 6.10, where the price rejected strongly earlier in the session.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both below current price levels, reinforcing the bearish bias. Price remains well below both, indicating that momentum has not yet shifted to the upside. On the daily chart, the 50-day MA has crossed below the 200-day MA, forming a bearish “death cross” pattern that adds weight to the medium-term bearish outlook.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has been negative for the majority of the 24-hour period, with bearish divergence visible as price hit a low and the indicator failed to confirm a lower low. The RSI-14 has fallen to 25, indicating extreme oversold conditions, but the price has failed to make a strong rebound. This suggests a lack of buying interest at these levels. Momentum remains bearish, and any short-term rally may face resistance from the 5.98–6.00 range.

Bollinger Bands

Price has recently traded near the lower Bollinger Band, which is currently at 5.935, highlighting a high-volatility bearish contraction. The 20-period Bollinger Band width has expanded to 0.39, suggesting increased uncertainty. The price is now within the band's lower half, and a bounce from the lower band may not be enough to reverse the trend without a volume confirmation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the selloff from 6.15 to 5.907, particularly around 21:30–22:00 ET when the price dropped 150 points in one 15-minute bar. Notional turnover increased by over 1,000% during this period. More recently, volume has declined, and price has moved sideways with minimal turnover, suggesting exhaustion on the bearish side. A sustained break above 6.02 with increasing volume may signal a shift in sentiment.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the recent 15-minute swing from 6.15 to 5.907, key Fibonacci levels include 6.10 (38.2%), 6.05 (50%), and 6.00 (61.8%). The price has failed to hold 6.00 and is now consolidating near 5.95. On a daily basis, the 61.8% retracement level from the major high of 6.356 is at 6.07, which aligns with the 200-day MA and could act as a near-term resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest of a mean-reversion strategy based on an RSI-14 < 30 entry has performed poorly on EULUSDC, with a cumulative return of -6.3% since 2022. While this aligns with the current oversold RSI reading, the data suggest that simply entering on an oversold signal may not be sufficient for profitable outcomes. The average loss of 3% and lack of winning trades over three days imply that a rigid mean-reversion approach may not be suited to the current market structure. Adjustments such as tighter volume filters or a longer holding window may be necessary to improve performance.