EU Soybean Imports Under Pressure as Feed Demand Weakens and Wheat Substitution Accelerates

The numbers tell a clear story of reduced demand. As of March 8, 2026, European Union soybean imports for the 2025/26 season stood at 8.54 million metric tons, a significant drop from the 9.61 million tons recorded at the same point last year. That represents an 11% year-on-year decline.

The slowdown is accelerating. By the midpoint of the year, the trend was even sharper. Data through January 15 showed imports at 6.73 million metric tons, which was 16% below the same period a year earlier. This points to a demand contraction that is not just present but intensifying in the first quarter.

Yet the picture is more complex than a simple drop in soybeans. The shift is happening within the broader protein supply chain. While soybean imports are falling, the European Commission's data also shows that soymeal imports fell by 11% to 9.86 million tons in the same early period. This suggests the reduction is not merely a substitution from soybeans to meal, but a broader pullback in the use of imported vegetable proteins. The contrast with the USDA forecast for record soybean meal imports of 19.5 million tonnes for the full year highlights the uncertainty in the forward view-current weakness may not persist, or the forecast may be adjusting to new realities. For now, the balance sheet shows a clear and growing deficit in raw soybean supply.

The Demand Side: Softening Feed, Shifting Formulas

The decline in soybean imports is a symptom of a broader softening in animal feed demand. The most precise data shows that EU soybean meal imports, a key indicator of protein demand, fell 11% to 8.83 million tons through the early period. This isn't just a seasonal dip; it's a structural pullback driven by ample alternative supplies and active shifts in feed formulation. The primary driver is the competitive pressure from grains. With EU corn supply forecast to reach 85.4 million metric tons for the 2025-26 season, feed mills are actively replacing corn and soybean meal with wheat. Market participants note that wheat is increasingly replacing corn in formulas, a trend expected to continue as price spreads stabilize. This substitution reduces the need for imported soybean meal, directly feeding into the import decline.

Adding to the pressure is the looming threat of disease. African swine fever outbreaks in key production regions like Spain are causing feed mills to "hold off" on making purchases for 2026. The outbreak, which began in late November, has created uncertainty that is already translating into reduced buying activity. One feed mill buyer stated the situation could "potentially shave 2026 feed demand", a direct headwind for the entire protein supply chain.

The bottom line is a demand environment caught between ample supply and shifting preferences. While regulatory uncertainty around the EU Deforestation Regulation has also contributed to market volatility, the core story is one of softening fundamentals. Feed mills are using cheaper wheat, cutting back on purchases due to disease fears, and generally scaling back on imported protein. This multi-pronged pressure is what's driving the current imbalance in the EU's soybean trade.

The Supply Chain: Substitution and Price Competitiveness

The EU's import patterns are being reshaped by a supply chain dynamic where domestic alternatives are less available, and imported soybean meal is more competitive than ever. The story of 2024/25 shows how this works: despite a drop in domestic oilseed production, the EU consumed a record volume of soybean meal. That strong usage was partly a direct offset to reduced availability of rapeseed and sunflowerseed meals, which saw below-average production that year. In other words, when domestic protein sources shrink, the market turns to the cheapest imported alternative, and soybean meal has been that option.

That price advantage is now more pronounced than it has been in years. Record global soybean harvests in South America have fueled a surge in crushing and exports, keeping global soybean meal prices low. This has made the product highly price-competitive for European feed mills. The evidence is clear: EU import unit values (CIF) averaged below US$400/tonne for the first time since 2019/20, a sharp decline from a peak of $550 per tonne in 2022/23. This competitive pricing is a major force pulling imports in, even as overall feed demand softens.

The USDA's recent forecast underscores this dynamic. It raised its projection for 2025/26 soybean meal imports into the EU to 19.5 million tonnes, moving closer to the previous year's decade high. The agency attributes this to the ongoing price competitiveness driven by record global production. In practice, this means that while demand from feed mills is under pressure from disease and substitution, the low cost of soybean meal is acting as a powerful counterweight, keeping import volumes elevated relative to the falling soybean numbers.

The setup is one of tension. On one side, weak demand and domestic substitution are capping growth. On the other, a flood of cheap global supply is making soybean meal a compelling buy when needed. This explains why the USDA forecast for meal imports is rising even as soybean imports fall. The supply chain is adapting: when domestic alternatives are scarce and global prices are low, the EU will import more meal. The key question now is whether the softening in feed demand is strong enough to break that link. For now, the competitive price floor is holding.

Catalysts and Risks: What Could Reverse the Trend?

The path for EU soybean and soymeal imports hinges on a few key factors that could either sustain the current decline or spark a rebound later in the season. The most immediate pressure point is regulatory uncertainty. The delayed implementation of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) has created a volatile backdrop. Prices swung sharply last year as expectations shifted, and the latest delay to December 2026 has left the market in a state of "relief, but also anxiety." This persistent uncertainty is already influencing decisions, with many buyers securing forward volumes early on, potentially leading to higher stock levels and reinforcing the current bearish trend. The risk is that this volatility continues to dampen trading and import interest throughout 2026.

On the demand side, the biggest potential catalyst is a resurgence in livestock production, particularly pork. African swine fever outbreaks in key regions like Spain have caused feed mills to "hold off" on purchases, with one buyer warning the situation could "potentially shave 2026 feed demand." If these disease pressures ease and export demand for pork recovers, it would directly boost feed and soybean meal consumption. However, the outlook remains subdued for now, with the market entering 2026 on a bearish note due to ample supply and weak demand.

The supply side offers a counterweight. Record global soybean harvests in South America are expected to continue fueling a surge in crushing and exports, keeping global soybean meal prices low. The USDA notes that low global soyabean meal prices made the product an attractive alternative last year, and that trend is expected to continue through 2025/26. This price competitiveness acts as a floor, supporting import volumes even if overall feed demand is soft. The forecast for 2025/26 soybean meal imports into the EU was recently raised to 19.5 million tonnes, a move driven by this ongoing price advantage.

The bottom line is a market caught between conflicting forces. Regulatory uncertainty and disease outbreaks are creating headwinds that are likely to keep the first half of the season weak. Yet the powerful tailwind of cheap, abundant global supply could support a stronger second half, especially if domestic feed demand recovers. The balance will be determined by which force gains the upper hand.