The EU’s Shift to Qualified Majority Voting in Foreign Policy and Its Implications for Geopolitical and Economic Stability

The European Union stands at a crossroads. For decades, its foreign policy has been hamstrung by the requirement for unanimous agreement among member states, a system that has allowed individual nations to block collective action on critical issues. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has exposed the fragility of this consensus-driven model, as seen in Hungary’s repeated vetoes of sanctions packages and its resistance to unified EU stances on human rights. In response, the EU is now seriously considering a shift to qualified majority voting (QMV) in the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP), a reform that could reshape its geopolitical influence and economic resilience.

A Defense Imperative: From Gridlock to Coherence

The case for QMV in defense cooperation is urgent. The current unanimity rule has left the EU vulnerable to paralysis, particularly in crises requiring rapid action. For example, between 2016 and 2022, member states used their veto rights at least 30 times to block foreign policy measures, including sanctions [1]. The war in Ukraine has accelerated calls for reform, with Germany and France leading the charge. Germany’s Group of Friends on QMV, formed in 2023, advocates for using existing legal mechanisms like the passerelle clause to streamline decision-making in defense and security matters [2].

The stakes are high. As the EU contemplates enlargement to include Ukraine, Moldova, and potentially Georgia, the Council’s voting dynamics will shift dramatically. A larger EU with 35+ members will face even greater challenges in achieving consensus, making QMV a practical necessity. The reform would allow the EU to act more decisively in defense of its interests, whether through joint military missions or sanctions regimes. For instance, the European Council’s 2025 conclusions emphasize the need for a 360° approach to security, including increased defense spending and joint procurement [3]. QMV would enable such initiatives to bypass obstruction by a minority of states, ensuring a unified European defense posture.

Trade Efficiency: A Model for Foreign Policy

The EU’s trade policy already demonstrates the benefits of QMV. Under the Common Commercial Policy (CCP), trade agreements are negotiated via QMV, allowing the European Commission to act swiftly on behalf of member states. The 2023 Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI), which enables the EU to retaliate against third-party economic coercion, was adopted under QMV, highlighting its effectiveness in geoeconomic statecraft [4]. Extending this model to CFSP could streamline responses to geopolitical threats, such as China’s assertive trade practices or Russia’s energy leverage.

The economic implications are clear. A shift to QMV would reduce the risk of stalemates in trade negotiations, particularly in an enlarged EU. For example, the EU’s recent €95 billion tariff consultation with the U.S. was expedited under QMV, showcasing how the system can align member states on complex economic issues [5]. In a post-Ukraine war context, where supply chain security and strategic autonomy are paramount, QMV would allow the EU to act as a single entity in trade disputes, enhancing its bargaining power.

Investment Strategies: Building Resilience Through Unity

The EU’s investment strategies are also poised to benefit from QMV. The Ukraine Investment Framework, part of the €50 billion Ukraine Facility, illustrates the need for rapid decision-making. This initiative, which mobilizes public and private capital for Ukraine’s reconstruction, relies on QMV to expedite approvals for large-scale projects [6]. Without it, delays caused by national vetoes could undermine the EU’s ability to respond to crises like the war in Ukraine.

Moreover, QMV would facilitate the EU’s Open Strategic Autonomy (OSA) agenda, which prioritizes self-reliance in critical sectors such as semiconductors and critical raw materials. Instruments like the EU Chips Act and the Net-Zero Industry Act require cross-border coordination, which QMV can accelerate [7]. In an enlarged EU, where new members like Ukraine bring both opportunities and challenges, QMV would ensure that investment decisions align with collective strategic goals rather than being derailed by individual objections.

Challenges and the Path Forward

Critics argue that QMV risks diluting national sovereignty, particularly for smaller states. However, the EU’s current system already allows larger members to dominate through informal consensus. The passerelle clause—a legal mechanism to shift from unanimity to QMV without treaty change—offers a middle ground, enabling incremental reforms [8]. The European Parliament has proposed amendments to Article 29 TEU to generalize QMV for sanctions and economic measures, a step that could pave the way for broader adoption [9].

Conclusion: A Unified Europe in a Fractured World

The EU’s shift to QMV in foreign policy is not merely an institutional reform—it is a strategic necessity. By enhancing defense coordination, trade efficiency, and investment resilience, QMV would enable the EU to act as a cohesive global actor in an increasingly fragmented world. The war in Ukraine has underscored the urgency of this transformation, and the coming years will test whether the EU can overcome its internal divisions to embrace a more unified future.

Source:
[1] Making EU Foreign Policy More Effective: Qualified Majority Voting on the Horizon [https://carnegieendowment.org/europe/strategic-europe/2023/05/making-eu-foreign-policy-more-effective-qualified-majority-voting-on-the-horizon?lang=en]
[2] The EU debate on qualified majority voting in the Common Foreign and Security Policy [https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/osw-commentary/2023-10-12/eu-debate-qualified-majority-voting-common-foreign-and]
[3] European Council conclusions on European defence and security [https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2025/06/26/european-council-conclusions-on-european-defence-and-security/]
[4] When Foreign Policy Becomes Trade Policy: The EU's Anti-Coercion Instrument [https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jcms.13593]
[5] EU Consults on New Tariffs on €95 Billion of U.S. Imports [https://www.globalpolicywatch.com/2025/05/eu-consults-on-new-tariffs-on-e95-billion-of-u-s-imports/]
[6] Ukraine Investment Framework - European Commission [https://enlargement.ec.europa.eu/european-neighbourhood-policy/countries-region/ukraine/ukraine-investment-framework_en]
[7] The EU's Open Strategic Autonomy and the challenge of competitiveness [https://www.globalpolicyjournal.com/blog/27/08/2025/eus-open-strategic-autonomy-and-challenge-competitiveness-era-geo-politicized]
[8] Qualified majority voting in common foreign and security policy [https://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/document/EPRS_STU(2023)740243]
[9] Legislative Train - European Parliament [https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-europe-as-a-stronger-global-actor/file-more-efficient-decision-making-in-cfsp]