ETHMXN Market Overview: Volatility and Breakdown in the 24-Hour Window

• ETHMXN opened at 79,795 MXN and closed at 75,767 MXN after hitting a high of 80,916 MXN and a low of 75,767 MXN.
• A large bearish candle formed in the final 15-minute period, indicating strong selling pressure.
• RSI entered oversold territory, while volume spiked during the final 45-minute window.
• Price tested multiple Fibonacci levels and broke key support from the previous day.
• Bollinger Bands showed volatility expansion early in the session before contraction toward the close.

Ethereum/Mexican Peso (ETHMXN) opened at 79,795 MXN on October 9 at 12:00 ET and closed at 75,767 MXN on October 10 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 80,916 MXN and a low of 75,767 MXN, with a total 24-hour volume of 4.5284 ETH and a notional turnover of approximately MXN 341,879. The session was marked by sharp selloffs and thin volume in early hours.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a long bearish candle in the final 15 minutes, with a high of 80,160 MXN and a close at 75,767 MXN, suggesting a sharp reversal. Earlier, a bullish engulfing pattern briefly emerged at 15:45 ET on October 9, but failed to hold. A doji formed at the top of the session, at 00:15 ET on October 10, indicating indecision before the breakdown. The price also broke key support levels around 80,469 MXN and 80,057 MXN, which had previously acted as floors.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20 and 50-period moving averages crossed below the price, forming a bearish death cross. On the daily chart, ETHMXN closed below the 200-period moving average, confirming a bearish bias. The 50 and 100-period averages showed converging bearish alignment, reinforcing the breakdown.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram turned negative by 16:30 ET on October 9, with the MACD line dipping below the signal line, signaling a bearish crossover. The RSI dropped below 30 in the final 2 hours of the session, entering oversold territory. However, divergence between RSI and price in early part of the session suggests lingering uncertainty among traders.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded in the early hours of the session, indicating heightened volatility following a period of contraction. By the close, price sat below the lower band for multiple intervals, suggesting exhaustion of selling momentum. The bands began to tighten again in the final hours, hinting at a potential consolidation phase ahead.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged in the final 45-minute interval, with 0.8966 ETH traded as price collapsed to 75,767 MXN. This spike in volume confirms the bearish breakdown. Earlier in the day, volume was nearly flat for several hours, suggesting a lack of conviction in either direction. Total turnover of MXN 341,879 is relatively moderate, but the distribution of volume was skewed toward the closing hours.

Fibonacci Retracements

Price broke below the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 76,980 MXN and the 38.2% level at 78,336 MXN, with the 75,767 MXN close near the 78.6% level of the prior day's range. This suggests a continuation of bearish momentum. On the 15-minute chart, price retraced 61.8% of the prior swing before collapsing.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy suggests a long-biased approach when RSI crosses below 30 and MACD confirms bearish crossover, combined with a stop-loss placed at the next Fibonacci level. However, the recent breakdown in ETHMXN shows that RSI entering oversold territory did not lead to a recovery but instead confirmed the bearish trend. This implies that the strategy may need to adjust its long-entry conditions to account for strong bearish momentum in high-volatility environments.