ETHMXN Market Overview for 2025-10-07

• ETHMXN traded in a narrow range most of the 24 hours before a sharp drop in the final 4.5 hours.
• Price collapsed 9.4% from 86,700 MXN to 83,039 MXN after 15:00 ET, signaling potential bearish momentum.
• Volume and turnover remained extremely low (< 0.3 ETH) until the final 45-minute candle, when a 0.2121 ETH volume spike triggered a sharp decline. • RSI and MACD suggest oversold conditions, but price remains near a 61.8% Fibonacci level, indicating possible consolidation. • Volatility expanded sharply during the sell-off, with Bollinger Bands widening as price dropped below the lower band.

Ethereum/Mexican Peso (ETHMXN) opened at 86,207 MXN on 2025-10-06 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 86,700 MXN before plunging to a low of 83,039 MXN by the end of the 24-hour period. Total volume traded was 2.58 ETH, with a notional turnover of approximately 193,166 MXN (calculated using average close prices).
The price remained largely stagnant early in the 24-hour window, with no volume or turnover recorded in most 15-minute intervals. A modest rally began around 20:45 ET as price pushed to 86,700 MXN on a 1.2673 ETH volume candle. However, the rally was short-lived and met resistance. A sharp bearish reversal began at 15:00 ET on the 24th hour, where price closed at 84,945 MXN on a 0.0058 ETH volume candle. A further 0.0149 ETH volume candle drove price to 83,620 MXN at 15:15 ET, followed by a 0.2121 ETH volume candle at 15:45 ET that pushed price down to 83,040 MXN.
Volatility expanded significantly during the final 4.5 hours, with Bollinger Bands widening to accommodate the drop below the lower band. RSI crossed into oversold territory (below 30) by the end of the session, while MACD turned negative with a bearish crossover, suggesting ongoing bearish momentum. A key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the previous day's high-low swing (from 86,207 MXN to 86,700 MXN) sits near 84,950 MXN — a level that failed to provide support during the session.
On the 20/50-period 15-minute MA chart, the 50 MA crossed below the 20 MA in a bearish signal during the last 45 minutes of the session. No major candlestick patterns such as engulfing or doji were observed during the session. Notable resistance appears to have developed around 86,700 MXN, with support forming near 83,040 MXN. The low-volume environment suggests a lack of conviction from buyers until the final 45-minute period.

Backtest Hypothesis
The provided backtesting strategy involves entering short positions when RSI crosses below 30 and a bearish MACD crossover occurs. Given the current ETHMXN setup, this strategy would have triggered a short signal at 15:00 ET as RSI dropped into oversold territory and MACD turned negative. A second signal was triggered at 15:15 ET with a stronger volume push and another at 15:45 ET as price broke through the 61.8% Fibonacci level.
The strategy could benefit from a stop-loss placed above the 50-period MA (which was at approximately 85,300 MXN) to limit risk in a counter-trend rally. A target for the short trade would be the next Fibonacci level at 83,620 MXN or the 20-period MA if bearish momentum continues. This approach may prove effective in a low-volume, high-volatility environment like the one observed, provided liquidity remains consistent.