ETHJPY Market Overview – 2025-11-03

Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) opened at ¥594,100 on 2025-11-02 at 12:00 ET and closed at ¥576,352 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-03. The 24-hour range extended from a high of ¥604,263 to a low of ¥554,020. Total volume traded was 1,814.67 ETH, while turnover amounted to ¥1,075,466,275.45. The pair traded in a volatile range, showing a bearish bias over the past 24 hours.

• Price dropped 4.7% from 12:00 ET-1 to 12:00 ET.
• Key bearish patterns emerged after a sharp break of support at ¥592,540.
• RSI dipped into oversold territory, signaling potential bounce.
• Volatility expanded as Bollinger Bands widened, with price testing the lower band.
• Turnover surged during the selloff into ¥554,020, suggesting increased conviction in the move lower.

Structure & Formations

The ETHJPY pair formed a clear descending pattern over the past 24 hours, with the price falling below a key support zone around ¥592,540. A bearish breakout was confirmed by a series of lower closes after this level was breached. Multiple bearish candlestick formations, including a strong bearish engulfing pattern and a long lower shadow on the candle that closed at ¥576,352, signal continued pressure on the pair. The price appears to be forming a new short-term range between ¥570,000 and ¥560,000, suggesting further consolidation or a potential reversal could be on the horizon.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have both turned downward, confirming the short-term bearish trend. The 20 MA currently sits at ¥583,150, while the 50 MA is at ¥591,800, both below the current price, reinforcing the bearish momentum. On a daily timeframe, the 50/100/200-day moving averages are not immediately relevant for short-term trading but provide context for the broader trend, with the 100 and 200-day MAs remaining in the ¥610,000–¥620,000 range, far above current prices.

MACD & RSI

The MACD for ETHJPY turned negative and continues to trend downward, confirming the bearish momentum. The histogram has been narrowing since the initial sell-off, indicating a potential slowdown in selling pressure. The RSI has dipped below 30 into oversold territory, suggesting a possible short-term rebound. However, given the broader bearish context, a rebound may offer a short-term sell opportunity rather than a reversal signal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has increased significantly over the last 24 hours, with Bollinger Bands expanding to a width of nearly ¥30,000. The price currently rests near the lower band at ¥554,020, indicating a high degree of oversold pressure. If the pair remains below the 20-period moving average for an extended period, a retest of the lower band could trigger a bounce. However, a continued breakdown below this level may suggest further downside toward ¥550,000.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the sharp decline into the ¥554,020 level, with a 15-minute candle recording 209.18 ETH traded at that level, a significant spike compared to earlier sessions. Notional turnover also rose sharply during the selloff, confirming the bearish momentum. The correlation between volume and price decline is strong, suggesting the move is backed by selling conviction rather than a temporary pullback.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, key Fibonacci levels for the recent ¥604,263 to ¥554,020 move are at 38.2% (¥582,455) and 61.8% (¥567,655). The current price is near the 61.8% level, which could act as a short-term support area. A break below this level could bring into focus the 100% extension at ¥550,000. On the daily chart, Fibonacci levels for the broader move from ¥600,000 to ¥560,000 are also in play, with the 61.8% level aligning with the recent low, adding weight to its potential as a consolidation point.

Backtest Hypothesis

A proposed backtest strategy involved identifying Bullish Engulfing candlestick patterns in ETHJPY to capture potential short-term rebounds. However, this strategy could not be validated due to an internal-server error when attempting to pull the ETHJPY candle pattern data. This suggests the symbol format may differ from the expected format. Clarifying the symbol format (e.g., CRYPTO:ETHJPY, ETHJPY=X, or ETH/JPY) or confirming if an alternative pair like ETH/USD is acceptable would allow the pattern data to be retrieved and the backtest to be completed. Once the correct symbol is identified, the 3-day holding period test could be run, using the signal detection from 2022-01-01 to present.