ETHJPY Market Overview for 2025-10-03

• Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) posted a 24-hour high of ¥675,000 before consolidating near ¥660,000.
• A strong bullish reversal pattern emerged near ¥658,000 with increasing volume during the afternoon.
• Volatility expanded significantly after ¥660,000 and has since narrowed, hinting at short-term consolidation.
• RSI and MACD suggest overbought conditions near ¥666,000, signaling potential for a pullback.
• Turnover surged during the midday push higher but has since declined as prices trade sideways.

Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) opened at ¥649,920 on 2025-10-02 at 12:00 ET, surged to a 24-hour high of ¥675,000, and closed at ¥660,103 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-03. Total volume traded over the 24-hour period was approximately 966.41 ETH, with a notional turnover of ¥631,280,968. The price action shows strong momentum followed by a pullback, suggesting potential for consolidation in the near term.

Structure & Formations

The ETHJPY chart reveals a bullish trend from ¥649,920 to ¥675,000, where a strong resistance level appears to have been breached. A notable bullish engulfing pattern emerged around ¥658,000, followed by a high-volume push to ¥666,616. Price has since retracted, forming a bearish harami around ¥666,000 and settling into a consolidation phase near ¥660,000. A key support level appears to be forming at ¥658,000, where the price has found multiple bids throughout the day.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages show a bullish crossover near ¥655,000, reinforcing the initial bullish momentum. However, as the price approaches ¥666,000, the 50-period MA begins to flatten and the 20-period MA starts to diverge, signaling a potential pullback. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is now lagging below the 100-period MA, indicating a possible near-term correction after the strong rally.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line early in the rally, confirming the bullish momentum. However, the histogram has begun to shrink, suggesting a slowdown in upward buying pressure. The RSI has moved into overbought territory around 70–75, with a peak near 75.5 at ¥666,000. A move back into the 50–60 range would signal a consolidation phase, with potential for a retest of ¥658,000 before resuming the uptrend.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply during the midday rally, with the upper band reaching ¥675,000. Price subsequently settled within the bands and is now hovering near the lower end, suggesting a reversion to the mean may be near. A break above the upper band would signal increased bullish conviction, while a close below the midline could trigger a test of the ¥658,000 support.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the midday rally, particularly between ¥658,000 and ¥666,000, with the largest volume block occurring near ¥662,000. This confirms strong buying pressure at higher levels. However, volume has since declined during the consolidation phase, suggesting traders are taking a breather. Turnover also peaked in that region but has declined as the price stabilizes near ¥660,000. The divergence between price and volume could hint at a near-term reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent swing from ¥649,920 to ¥675,000, the 23.6% and 38.2% levels align closely with ¥662,000 and ¥656,000, respectively. The current price is consolidating near the 61.8% level at ¥660,000, which may act as a key inflection point. A break above ¥666,000 could target the 76.4% level at ¥673,000, while a breakdown below ¥660,000 could lead to a test of the 50% level at ¥662,000.

Backtest Hypothesis

For a backtesting strategy using a 15-minute timeframe, a potential approach could involve entering long positions on a bullish engulfing pattern when RSI crosses above 50 and the 20-period MA crosses above the 50-period MA. A stop-loss could be placed below the low of the engulfing pattern, with a target at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Given the recent structure and volume confirmation near ¥658,000, this strategy may find strong support for re-entries in the near term if price revisits this level with strong volume.