ETHJPY Market Overview for 2025-09-11

• ETHJPY opened at ¥649,716 and surged to a high of ¥663,577 before closing at ¥649,973, showing volatile but bearish price action.
• Momentum indicators suggest mixed signals, with RSI pointing to potential overbought conditions and MACD indicating a fading bullish trend.
• Volatility expanded dramatically in the final hour of the report, marked by a sharp correction from ¥663,577 to below ¥653,000, with high volume.
• Bollinger Bands show the price tested the upper band twice and is now consolidating near the lower band, suggesting potential for a bounce or further decline.
• Volume spiked to a peak of ¥335,191 during the sell-off, but subsequent volume declined, raising questions about follow-through on the bearish move.

Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) opened at ¥649,716 on 2025-09-10 12:00 ET and surged to ¥663,577 by 12:45 PM ET on 2025-09-11, before reversing sharply to close at ¥649,973. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 335.191, with total turnover reaching ¥197.75 million. The session displayed a mix of bullish and bearish momentum.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick chart for ETHJPY displayed a bearish reversal pattern after a sharp intraday high of ¥663,577. A large bearish engulfing pattern emerged between 12:45 PM and 1:00 PM ET, followed by a doji at the end of the session, indicating indecision. A key resistance level appears to have formed near ¥663,000, while support has held at ¥649,000 and ¥648,000, with the latter showing recurring rejection.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period line in the final hour, confirming a bearish bias. On the daily chart, price closed below the 200-period moving average, suggesting medium-term bearish momentum. The 50-period line is currently at ¥652,000 and is likely to serve as a pivot for short-term direction.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD turned negative during the sell-off, with a bearish crossover of the signal line. RSI peaked above 70, indicating overbought conditions, followed by a sharp pullback to around 50, suggesting exhaustion in the short-term rally. Momentum appears to be weakening, especially following the sharp correction in the last 90 minutes.

Bollinger Bands showed a strong expansion during the bullish phase, with price reaching the upper band at ¥663,577. As the price pulled back, it dropped below the 20-period mean, suggesting increased volatility and a potential for a mean reversion or further bearish move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the sell-off with the most significant candle at ¥663,577 recording a volume of ¥335,191. However, the following bearish candle had much lower volume, suggesting a potential lack of follow-through. Turnover also dropped significantly post-1:00 PM ET, signaling reduced conviction in the bearish move. Divergence between price and volume could hint at a potential short-term bottom forming near ¥649,000.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the intraday high of ¥663,577 and low of ¥634,745, the 61.8% level is at ¥654,000. Price has tested this level twice and is currently hovering just below it. The 38.2% retracement is at ¥657,000 and may serve as resistance on a rebound. On a daily chart, the 50% retracement level from the recent monthly high is at ¥650,000, which coincides with the current consolidation range.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent bearish engulfing and the divergence in volume during the sell-off, a backtest strategy could involve entering a short position at the close of the bearish engulfing candle (around ¥660,000) with a stop-loss above the high of ¥663,577 and a target at the 61.8% Fibonacci level of ¥654,000. A trailing stop could be activated after a 100-point move in favor. This setup aligns with the bearish momentum in MACD and RSI, as well as the breakdown from key resistance, making it a high-probability short-term trade on a pullback.