Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN) Market Overview

• ETHPLN saw a volatile 24-hour session with a high of 15,553.0 and a low of 15,000.0.
• Price formed multiple bullish and bearish engulfing patterns, particularly in the early morning hours.
• Volatility increased as the price moved within a range of ~553 PLN.
• Momentum remained mixed, with RSI fluctuating between overbought and oversold levels.
• Bollinger Bands showed periods of contraction and expansion, indicating shifting volatility.

The Ethereum/Zloty pair (ETHPLN) opened at 15,004.0 on 2025-10-12 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 15,553.0, a low of 15,000.0, and closed at 15,228.0 the next day at 12:00 ET. Total volume traded over the 24-hour period was 117.1446 ETH, with a notional turnover of approximately 1.75 million PLN.

Structure & Formations

The ETHPLN 24-hour candlestick chart displayed significant price volatility and alternating bullish and bearish formations. A strong bullish engulfing pattern emerged between 17:45 and 18:00 ET as the price surged from 15,462.0 to 15,413.0, followed by a bearish engulfing pattern starting at 18:45 ET, indicating short-term bearish momentum. A key support level appears to be forming around 15,200.0, where the price found a floor multiple times. Resistance levels are evident around 15,500.0 and 15,400.0, with mixed conviction in the latter due to several breakouts and retests.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed multiple times, signaling choppy and directionless price action. However, the 20SMA crossed above the 50SMA in the early morning hours, hinting at a potential short-term bullish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA currently resides above the 100 and 200-period SMAs, suggesting Ethereum remains in a bullish trend on the longer time frame.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD line showed divergence in the late hours, with price making higher highs but the MACD forming lower highs, suggesting weakening bullish momentum. RSI fluctuated wildly between overbought (>70) and oversold (<30) levels, indicating a market in transition without a clear direction. A notable overbought reading occurred at 15,553.0, followed by a sharp decline, suggesting short-term profit-taking. RSI appears to be stabilizing near the 50 level, which may indicate a possible consolidation phase ahead.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands displayed a notable contraction between 04:00 and 05:00 ET, followed by an expansion as the price moved higher. During contraction, the price traded near the middle band, indicating a period of low volatility and potential breakout. After 05:45 ET, the price moved closer to the upper band, suggesting a temporary overbought condition. In the final hours of the session, the price drifted toward the lower band, indicating a potential pullback or consolidation in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked in the early evening hours between 19:30 and 20:30 ET, coinciding with a sharp price decline from 15,430.0 to 15,364.0. This volume surge confirmed bearish momentum. Conversely, in the early morning, volume was lower, even as the price made a move to 15,553.0, indicating a weaker bullish impulse. Notional turnover mirrored volume trends, with the highest turnover occurring during the late-night bearish phase. No major price-volume divergence was observed, suggesting that price movements were broadly supported by volume.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 15-minute chart between the high of 15,553.0 and the low of 15,200.0, the 38.2% retracement level sits at ~15,430.0 and the 61.8% level at ~15,320.0. The price has bounced off the 61.8% level on multiple occasions, suggesting a critical support zone around 15,320.0. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement level aligns with 15,300.0, which appears to be a strong horizontal support area that has been tested and confirmed multiple times.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed RSI overbought and oversold conditions, a potential backtest strategy could leverage RSI to generate trading signals. For ETHPLN, an RSI-based strategy might involve entering long positions when RSI falls below 30 and exiting when it rises above 70, with stop-loss and take-profit levels based on Fibonacci retracement levels or recent volatility. Using a 14-period RSI with default thresholds (30 and 70) aligns with the market’s behavior observed in this 24-hour period. The backtest would use close prices for entries and exits to maintain consistency with intraday candlestick data. Holding periods would be limited to two days to account for rapid price swings, and a 5% stop-loss and 10% take-profit would be applied to manage risk. This strategy could be evaluated using historical ETHPLN data from 2022-01-01 to today to assess its profitability and robustness.