Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN) Market Overview

• ETHPLN closed 4.7% lower at 14,439.0 PLN, breaching key support and extending a bearish bias.
• Volatility expanded in early hours, with a 7.8% intraday swing and Bollinger Band width reaching a 24-hour peak.
• A deep bearish engulfing pattern formed at the top, and RSI entered oversold territory below 30, suggesting possible near-term exhaustion.
• Notional turnover surged by 400% in the 19:00–20:00 ET window, but failed to confirm a bounce as price dropped further.
• Fibonacci levels at 14,278.0 and 14,180.0 became critical near-term targets, with 14,601.0 offering near-term resistance.

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-09-25, Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN) opened at 14,629.0 PLN and reached an intraday high of 14,640.0 PLN before closing at 14,439.0 PLN at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-26. The pair declined 4.7%, forming a bearish trend with total trading volume of 62.4 PLN million and notional turnover of 893.3 PLN million over 24 hours.

Structure & Formations

A strong bearish engulfing pattern formed around 16:30 ET–1, signaling a shift in sentiment after a short-lived attempt to recover. A doji appeared at 21:45 ET–1, hinting at indecision. Key support levels were identified at 14,278.0 and 14,180.0, both of which have shown price rejection in past sessions. Resistance appears to be strengthening around the 14,601.0 level, which has acted as a ceiling for upward moves.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average (MA) crossed below the 50-period MA at 17:30 ET–1, confirming a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50-day MA is at 14,379.0, aligning with recent price action. The 100- and 200-day MAs remain above current levels, suggesting medium-term bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative at 17:30 ET–1 and remained in bearish territory throughout the session, with the histogram narrowing, indicating weakening momentum. RSI fell below 30 at 21:00 ET–1, confirming oversold conditions. While this may suggest a short-term bounce, the lack of follow-through in volume and price suggests caution.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Band width expanded significantly during the early hours, with a mid-20% increase in volatility. Price closed near the lower band at 14,439.0, suggesting a continuation of the downward trend. A contraction in volatility may be due in the next 24 hours, potentially leading to a breakout or consolidation phase.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 4.1231 PLN million at 19:00 ET–1, but this failed to produce a meaningful rebound, signaling a divergence. Turnover reached a peak of 893.3 PLN million in the same window, yet price continued to decline. This divergence between volume and price suggests fading bullish sentiment and could signal a continuation of the bearish trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the price has fallen to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 14,278.0, which may act as a pivot point. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement level at 14,379.0 appears to be holding for now, aligning with the 50-day MA. A break below 14,278.0 could push the pair toward 14,180.0.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could be built around combining the RSI oversold signal with a volume divergence. When RSI drops below 30 and volume fails to confirm a bullish bounce (as seen at 21:00 ET–1), a short position could be initiated with a stop above the 14,601.0 resistance level. Targets would be set at the 61.8% and 100% Fibonacci levels. This approach would aim to capture the continuation of the bearish trend while managing risk with a defined stop-loss.