Ethereum/Yen Market Overview

• ETHJPY opened at 664,576 and closed at 617,958, with a 24-hour high of 666,952 and low of 607,251.
• A sharp decline unfolded after 18:30 ET, with volume spiking during the selloff and a bearish engulfing pattern observed.
• RSI moved into oversold territory (26), while Bollinger Bands widened, signaling increased volatility.
• On-balance volume diverged with price in late NY session, suggesting potential bearish exhaustion.
• Fibonacci levels at 618,000 and 608,000 are key short-term support areas to watch.

Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) opened at 664,576 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-21 and closed at 617,958 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-22. The 24-hour range was 666,952 (high) to 607,251 (low). Total volume traded during the period was 3,172.9646 ETH, with a notional turnover of ¥2,090,593,186. The market experienced a pronounced bearish shift after 18:30 ET, with a bearish engulfing pattern appearing on the 15-minute chart as the price broke below a key support level.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both moved below the price, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, Ethereum/Yen closed below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, signaling a potential shift in medium-term trend. The MACD histogram showed a sharp bearish crossover, while RSI dropped below 30 into oversold territory, suggesting a potential pullback could be near.

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the selloff, indicating heightened volatility. Price found support at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 627,000 during the early hours of 2025-09-22, but failed to hold it. The 61.8% level (approximately 618,000) is now the key area to watch for a possible short-term reversal. On-balance volume showed divergence with price during the late New York session, hinting at possible exhaustion in the bearish move.

The next 24 hours may see Ethereum/Yen consolidating near 618,000 if buyers step in at Fibonacci support. A break below 618,000 could target 608,000, with increased volume expected if the move is confirmed. Traders should remain cautious as volatility remains elevated and divergence suggests a potential countertrend opportunity.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtesting strategy involves a mean-reversion approach, entering short positions when price closes below the 20-period EMA on the 15-minute chart and RSI dips below 30, with a stop-loss at the recent high and a take-profit at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Long positions are triggered when RSI crosses above 70 with a close above the 20-period EMA. Historical data from this 24-hour period supports the strategy’s viability during the sharp selloff, with the bearish signal forming at 18:45 ET (15-minute chart) aligning with a 22% pullback. If confirmed on subsequent data, this approach may yield a risk-reward profile of approximately 1:2 during volatile market conditions.