Ethereum/Yen Market Overview for 2025-10-04

• Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) declined 24 hours, closing at 661612.0 after hitting a high of 677040.0 and a low of 656401.0.
• Momentum weakened as RSI fell into oversold territory, while volume dipped after a morning surge.
• Price tested multiple support levels, with a key cluster forming between 660,000 and 663,000.
• Bollinger Bands showed volatility expansion early, followed by contraction in the afternoon.
• A doji near 661,500 hinted at indecision, while bearish engulfing patterns confirmed the downward bias.

The Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) pair opened at 664308.0 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET and closed at 661612.0 on 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour high was 677040.0 and the low was 656401.0. Total volume traded during the period was 1,715.14294 ETH, with a notional turnover of approximately ¥1,137,648,444 (based on weighted prices). Price action showed a bearish bias, with a 2.48% decline from open to close.

Structure & Formations

Price tested key support levels repeatedly in the final hours, with a cluster between 660,000 and 663,000 acting as a short-term floor. A doji formed near 661,500, indicating indecision after a strong bearish engulfing pattern. Earlier in the day, a bullish engulfing pattern was observed near 664,000 but failed to hold. The 667,000–669,000 zone appears to be a resistance cap from the afternoon push.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period SMAs remained below price action in the latter half of the day, reinforcing the bearish momentum. The 50-period MA crossed below the 100-period MA, forming a potential death cross in the daily timeframe. This aligns with the bearish trend observed in price and volume flow, suggesting further downward bias in the short term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a bearish crossover, with the line dropping below the signal line and remaining negative. RSI fell to oversold levels (below 30) in the final hour, signaling potential exhaustion in the downward move. This could prompt a near-term bounce or consolidation phase, but without confirmation from the MACD or volume, the bearish case remains intact.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded in the morning hours due to a sharp rally and pullback above 675,000, but contracted significantly by the afternoon as the price drifted lower. In the final 6 hours, price moved near the lower band of the Bollinger Bands, suggesting oversold conditions and the potential for a near-term rebound. However, a break below the lower band could indicate further weakness.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked in the early part of the session, particularly during the 675,000–667,000 pullback, with large turnover volumes (over ¥60M) in two key 15-minute intervals. Afternoon trading saw a notable reduction in both volume and turnover, suggesting a lack of conviction in further downward movement. This divergence could signal a potential reversal or consolidation phase, but confirmation is needed from price action and momentum indicators.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing high (677,040) and low (656,401), the 38.2% level sits at approximately 667,140, while the 61.8% level is near 661,240. Price action has stalled near the 61.8% retracement area, which aligns with the key support cluster. A break below 661,240 could push the pair toward the 50% level at 659,820. In the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement level from the recent low is at 663,443, which may act as a near-term support if buyers return.

Backtest Hypothesis

The recent bearish momentum and key support tests suggest a potential short-term trading opportunity using a Fibonacci-based mean reversion strategy. A buy entry could be placed just above 661,240 (61.8% retracement) with a stop-loss below 656,401 (the recent swing low). A profit target at 663,443 (38.2% retracement) would aim to capture the potential bounce off the 61.8% level. This setup is supported by the RSI hitting oversold territory and the Bollinger Bands contraction. The strategy could be backtested on a 1-hour timeframe using a moving average crossover or volume confirmation to filter false breakouts.