Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) Market Overview

• Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) saw a 24-hour range of ¥661,138 to ¥667,128, ending near the lower end with mixed momentum.
• RSI and MACD indicated overbought conditions early, followed by bearish divergence later in the session.
• Volatility remained high, with Bollinger Bands showing expansion after a contraction during key pullbacks.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed around ¥664,600–664,927, signaling potential near-term downside.
• Volume spiked during bearish moves, confirming selling pressure below ¥663,000.

Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) opened at ¥667,128 on 2025-09-20 12:00 ET and closed at ¥664,523 on 2025-09-21 12:00 ET, with a high of ¥668,183 and a low of ¥661,138. Total volume over 24 hours was 446.06983 ETH, with turnover reaching ¥295,796,640. Price action showed a bearish bias in the latter half of the session, with key resistance near ¥665,543 and support at ¥663,344.

Structure & Formations

Price tested key resistance at ¥665,543 and ¥666,160 multiple times during the session, but failed to hold above these levels, especially after the ¥665,104 pivot point. A bearish engulfing pattern formed between ¥664,605 and ¥664,927, reinforcing potential for a short-term pullback. Doji were observed at ¥665,104 and ¥664,927, suggesting indecision. A strong support level emerged at ¥663,344, where price found multiple bounces.

Moving Averages

The 20-period (15-min) and 50-period moving averages were closely aligned around ¥664,600–664,927, indicating consolidation. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 SMA alignment suggested a slightly bearish bias, with price consistently below the 200 SMA. This supports the view that the 24-hour bearish bias may continue unless a strong bullish break above ¥665,543 occurs.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed bearish divergence in the final hours, with the histogram declining despite a brief attempt to rally around ¥664,927. The RSI reached overbought territory early in the session (above 70) but quickly reversed into oversold territory (below 30) after the 2025-09-20 17:15 ET selloff. This suggests a strong bearish momentum shift, with further downside possible unless bulls reassert control above ¥665,104.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded after a contraction observed between ¥665,052 and ¥664,605, with price breaking the lower band at ¥663,210. This suggests a temporary exhaustion of selling pressure at this level and potential for a bounce. The bands widened significantly during the 2025-09-21 02:30 ET to 04:45 ET time frame, indicating increased uncertainty and market re-evaluation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during bearish moves below ¥664,600, particularly after the 2025-09-20 17:15 ET breakdown. The largest single-candle volume occurred at ¥666,136 (¥664,048 close), suggesting strong selling pressure. Notional turnover confirmed bearish sentiment, with the largest turnover occurring during the 2025-09-21 02:30 ET candle. However, a divergence appeared in the final 15-minute candles, with volume failing to support the price rebound near ¥664,928, indicating weak conviction in the reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci retracement levels on the 15-minute chart included 38.2% at ¥665,104 and 61.8% at ¥663,868. Price briefly tested the 61.8% level before continuing lower. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement was at ¥663,900, and the 61.8% retracement at ¥662,500. Price found initial support at ¥663,344 and ¥662,585, suggesting these levels could be relevant for near-term trading decisions.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering short positions when ETHJPY closes below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at ¥663,868 on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss above the 38.2% level at ¥665,104. Long positions could be triggered on a close above ¥665,543, with a stop-loss below the 61.8% level. The 15-minute MACD bearish crossover in the final hours and the RSI divergence below 30 support the validity of this approach. Given the recent bearish engulfing and support at ¥663,344, this setup appears suitable for a short-term mean-reversion or trend-following strategy.