Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) Market Overview – 2025-10-11

• Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) declined over 24 hours amid strong bearish momentum and high volatility.
• Key resistance near 627,000 appears untested, while support levels at 580,000 and 572,000 were briefly challenged.
• Volume and turnover suggest increased bearish participation during the session’s selloff.
• RSI is oversold, but MACD momentum remains negative, indicating potential for further downside in the short term.

Opening Narrative

Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) opened at 624,960 on 2025-10-10 at 16:00 ET and closed at 586,207 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 630,109 and a low of 563,908. Total traded volume was 8,374.32 ETH, and notional turnover reached approximately ¥4.63 billion over the 24-hour window.

Structure & Formations

The ETHJPY pair formed a strong bearish trend, with a large bearish engulfing pattern developing between 21:30 and 21:45 ET on 2025-10-10. This was followed by a continuation of selling pressure into the early hours of 2025-10-11, with price failing to reclaim key psychological resistance levels above 600,000. A bearish flag pattern can be observed between 00:00 and 04:00 ET on 2025-10-11, with price consolidating between 576,000 and 582,000 before resuming the downtrend. A doji formed at 08:15 ET on 2025-10-11, indicating a possible temporary pause in the selloff.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA was below the 50-period MA, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 50-period MA is now acting as a dynamic resistance at around 590,000, with price failing to cross above it multiple times. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits at ~622,000, the 100-period MA at ~608,000, and the 200-period MA at ~594,000. Price is now comfortably below all three, indicating a medium-term bearish alignment.

MACD & RSI

The MACD indicator turned negative and remained in bear territory, with the MACD line below the signal line and diverging lower. RSI reached an oversold level of ~28 by 07:00 ET on 2025-10-11, but failed to bounce back above 50, reinforcing the bearish momentum. The combination of low RSI and negative MACD suggests continued downward pressure in the near term.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly between 21:30 and 22:30 ET on 2025-10-10, with price breaking below the lower Bollinger Band. The bands contracted slightly during the consolidation phase but widened again as the selloff resumed. Price has remained below the 20-period moving average and within the lower half of the bands since the midday selloff on 2025-10-10, signaling a strong bearish bias.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during key bearish phases, especially during the large 15-minute candle between 21:30 and 21:45 ET, which closed at 588,366 after an intra-candle low of 585,937. Notional turnover during this period reached ¥300 million. Price and volume aligned bearishly, with no signs of divergence. The final leg down from 613,099 to 588,241 saw consistent volume and turnover, indicating broad bearish participation.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, price retraced to the 61.8% Fibonacci level at ~607,000 before continuing lower. On the daily chart, the move from 630,109 to 563,908 aligns with a 61.8% retracement at ~586,000, where price found temporary support. A further 38.2% retracement is at ~601,000, which may serve as a psychological level to watch in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the alignment of bearish price action, key Fibonacci levels, and the RSI’s oversold condition, a potential backtest strategy could include a short entry near the 586,000 level with a stop just above the 601,000 retracement level. A target could be set at the 572,000 area, which represents the next Fibonacci and psychological support level. This strategy would aim to capture the continuation of the downward trend while managing risk through a defined stop-loss. The RSI divergence and MACD momentum suggest that the move to 572,000 is more likely than a bounce back above 600,000 in the next 24 hours.