Ethereum/Yen 24-Hour Market Overview

• Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) declined from 689,048 to 669,440, forming a bearish breakdown after a short-term peak at 689,389.
• Momentum turned bearish midday, with RSI dropping into oversold territory and Bollinger Bands tightening.
• Volume spiked during the early morning and early afternoon, but price failed to hold key resistance levels.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the 680,000 level, signaling potential continuation lower.
• Turnover surged during the 08:15–09:00 ET window, reflecting heightened selling pressure and bearish sentiment.

Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) opened at 678,800 on 2025-09-14 at 12:00 ET, peaked at 689,389, and closed at 669,440 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-15. The 24-hour total volume was 978.82 ETH, with notional turnover amounting to ¥652,356,889. A significant bearish breakdown was observed after a morning rally, suggesting possible continued downward bias.

Structure & Formations

ETHJPY displayed bearish structure after breaking below 680,000 on a 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern. Key support levels emerged at 676,773 and 666,000, with 666,000 acting as a potential short-term floor. A morning high at 689,389 marked a critical resistance level, which failed to hold, indicating potential for further consolidation lower. A doji formed near 668,000 in the late afternoon, suggesting indecision but failing to reverse the trend.

Moving Averages and Momentum

The 15-minute 20- and 50-period moving averages both trended downward, confirming a bearish bias in intraday momentum. On a daily chart, the 50- and 200-day moving averages are in a bearish alignment, with the 200-day acting as a strong resistance at 670,000–675,000. RSI dropped into oversold territory at 25 during the early afternoon, suggesting a possible bounce, but without a strong reversal candle, the bearish trend may persist. MACD showed bearish divergence with price, further reinforcing downward momentum.

Volatility and Fibonacci Retracements

Bollinger Bands narrowed during the morning hours before expanding as volatility increased during the breakdown. The price currently rests near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the 666,000–689,389 swing, suggesting a possible area of consolidation or a temporary rebound. The 38.2% retracement sits at 679,000, which may act as a potential short-term resistance if buyers re-enter the market.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves entering short positions after a confirmed break below a 15-minute 20-period EMA, with a stop above the most recent high and a target at the next Fibonacci retracement level. Given today's bearish setup, this strategy could have captured the morning rally as a false breakout, entering shorts on the breakdown at 680,000. A stop above 682,500 and a target at 666,000 would align with the observed price action. The strategy appears to perform best in high-volatility environments like today’s, where price action shows clear directional bias and momentum indicators confirm the trend.