Will Ethereum Whales Trigger a Downtrend or Fuel a Bounce?

Ethereum’s whale community has shown clear signs of profit-taking in recent weeks, with large holders offloading significant portions of their holdings, potentially exerting short-term downward pressure on the token’s price. According to on-chain data from Ali Martinez, Ethereum whales holding 1,000 to 100,000 ETH sold 90,000 ETH—valued at approximately $500 million—over two days in late September 2025. This activity, while not indicating a trend reversal, has added immediate selling pressure as ETH trades near $4,490, below its $4,500 psychological level. Analysts attribute this to portfolio rebalancing or shifts in market positioning, though some suggest it reflects broader caution ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s anticipated rate cut.

The selling pressure coincides with outflows from spot Ethereum ETFs, which recorded $61.70 million in redemptions on September 17. BlackRock and Fidelity’s ETFs alone accounted for over $68.40 million in ETH exits, likely influenced by Citigroup’s bearish price prediction. The Wall Street bank forecasted ETH to end 2025 at $4,300, with a downside risk of $2,200 in a bearish scenario, citing on-chain value metrics amid layer-2 network growth. This contrasts with Standard Chartered’s more optimistic outlook, which anticipates ETH rising above $5,000 driven by institutional demand for corporate Ethereum treasuries.

Technical indicators reinforce the tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces. The Ethereum price has remained below $4,500 for two consecutive days, with the 24-hour range between $4,428 and $4,524. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dipped to 54, signaling potential for a downside move in the absence of catalysts. Meanwhile, open interest in ETH futures has shown mixed signals: total open interest rose 0.5% to $63.31 billion in 24 hours, but recent declines on CME and Binance suggest derivatives traders remain cautious. On the daily chart, ETH holds just above the 50-day moving average (50-SMA), while the 100-SMA and 200-SMA provide stronger support.

Despite the near-term volatility, analysts remain cautiously optimistic about Ethereum’s longer-term trajectory. Michael van de Poppe, a prominent crypto analyst, emphasized the criticality of the $4,400 level, warning that a breakdown could trigger a test of $4,000. “If ETH dips in these ranges, I’m happy to buy the dip,” he stated. Conversely, Crypto Tony highlighted $4,770 as a key resistance level for a sustained rally, with invalidation expected if the price falls below $4,350. Institutional accumulation also provides a counterbalance: Arkham reported three new whale wallets purchasing $205 million in ETH from FalconX, signaling continued confidence in the asset.

The broader market context adds complexity. While Ethereum’s institutional demand and whale activity remain robust—Bitmine Immersion and Joe Lubin’s SharpLink Gaming have increased holdings—liquidity levels and exchange inflows will be critical in determining whether the current pullback is a temporary correction or a more sustained downturn. Additionally, Binance’s rising reserves, as noted by CryptoQuant, suggest increased short-term selling pressure, though the majority of ETH supply remains illiquid, supporting a bullish structural imbalance.

In summary, Ethereum’s price trajectory hinges on the interplay between whale activity, institutional sentiment, and macroeconomic factors. While profit-taking and ETF outflows have created near-term headwinds, technical and on-chain fundamentals suggest resilience above $4,350. The upcoming Fed rate cut decision and subsequent market reactions will likely serve as pivotal catalysts for the next phase of Ethereum’s price action.

Source: [1] Ethereum Price Prediction: Dip Likely as Massive Whale Activity Sparks Concern (https://www.thecoinrepublic.com/2025/09/17/ethereum-price-prediction-eth-risks-falling-as-whales-dump-90k-coins-ahead-of-fed-rate-cut/)

[2] Ethereum Price Prediction September 2025: How High Could ETH Go? (https://coinpedia.org/price-analysis/eth-price-targets-5500-as-whale-buys-supply-trends-shape-september-outlook/)

[3] Ethereum Price Prediction: ETH Reclaims $4,500 Behind Heavy Whale Buys (https://en.cryptonomist.ch/2025/09/12/ethereum-price-prediction-eth-reclaims-4500-behind-heavy-whale-buys-is-7k-next-in-october/)