Ethereum's Whale Accumulation and On-Chain Signals: A Tactical Long Case Before the Fusaka Upgrade

Ethereum's recent price action has sparked renewed interest among investors, particularly as on-chain data and whale behavior suggest a potential short-term reversal. With the Fusaka upgrade looming on December 3rd-a pivotal network upgrade aimed at enhancing scalability and security-the confluence of institutional accumulation, favorable on-chain metrics, and evolving market positioning presents a compelling case for tactical long positions.

Whale Accumulation: A Sign of Institutional Confidence

Ethereum whales have been aggressively accumulating ETH during the recent market pullback, signaling strong conviction in the asset's near-term prospects. A notable example includes a newly created wallet acquiring 20,000 ETH worth $70 million from Kraken's hot wallet in two consecutive transactions when ETH traded near $3,200. Another whale purchased 24,007 ETH ($82 million) via Galaxy Digital's over-the-counter desk, while a separate wallet secured $206 million in AaveETH, a liquid staking derivative. These transactions, often associated with institutional or treasury participants, align with historical patterns where large buyers accumulate during dips, typically preceding market recoveries according to data. Analysts like ShayanMarkets from CryptoQuant have highlighted that Ethereum could find support between $3,000 and $3,400, with a potential bullish run to $4,500–$4,800 if the accumulation phase continues according to reports.

On-Chain Metrics: Balancing Optimism and Caution

Ethereum's on-chain metrics paint a nuanced picture. The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio currently stands at 1.50, indicating a balanced market where neither extreme optimism nor pessimism dominates. Staked ETH, which accounts for 36.1 million of the 121.12 million circulating supply, has a slightly higher MVRV of 1.7, reflecting reduced panic-selling risk and strong investor confidence. Meanwhile, the NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit and Loss) metric has dropped to 0.23, the lowest since July 1, signaling a capitulation phase where most wallets hold unrealized losses. Historically, such drops have been followed by significant rallies, as seen in June 2025 when NUPL hit 0.17 before a price rebound. However, the current NUPL level still leaves room for further downside if market conditions deteriorate according to market analysis.

Funding Rates and Institutional Adoption: A Structural Tailwind

The perpetual futures market has shown growing optimism, with Ethereum's funding rates rising from 4% to 6% in November 2025. This increase suggests a shift in sentiment toward long positions, particularly around the $2,700 support level, as traders view current prices as attractive entry points according to market indicators. Institutional adoption has also accelerated, with the Singapore Exchange (SGX) and Cboe launching regulated Ethereum perpetual futures in late 2025 and Cboe unveiling perpetual futures for Bitcoin and Ethereum. These products, designed for institutional and accredited investors, aim to enhance liquidity and price discovery while reducing basis risk through funding rate mechanisms. The launch of SGX's Ethereum futures, in particular, underscores Singapore's emergence as a crypto-friendly hub and signals broader acceptance of digital assets in traditional finance.

Strategic Entry Points and the Fusaka Catalyst

With Ethereum currently trading at $3,552.62-a 6.51% gain over the past week-investors may find tactical entry opportunities ahead of the Fusaka upgrade according to market analysis. The upgrade's focus on increasing block gas limits and doubling blob capacity is expected to improve network efficiency, potentially driving demand for ETH as a base asset for layer-2 solutions and decentralized applications according to on-chain data. Coupled with the whale accumulation and institutional inflows, the technical and fundamental catalysts suggest a high probability of a short-term breakout.

Conclusion: A Confluence of Factors for Tactical Longs

Ethereum's recent price action, supported by whale accumulation, favorable on-chain metrics, and institutional adoption, creates a robust case for tactical long positions. While the NUPL metric remains a cautionary signal, the historical precedent of capitulation phases preceding rallies, combined with the Fusaka upgrade's structural benefits, tilts the risk-reward profile in favor of buyers. Investors should monitor key support levels at $2,650–$2,700 and consider dollar-cost averaging into positions as the market consolidates ahead of December's critical network upgrade.