Ethereum/Tether Market Overview for October 1, 2025

• Ethereum/Tether (ETHUSDT) surged from $4,104.6 to $4,340.6 in 24 hours, posting a strong bullish breakout pattern.
• Momentum picked up sharply after 20:00 ET, with price rallying over $100 in a single hour due to high-volume spikes.
• Price closed above a key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, signaling strong continuation potential.
• RSI reached overbought territory near 70, while MACD showed bullish divergence, indicating sustained upward momentum.
• Volatility expanded significantly during the late ET session, suggesting increased market participation and speculative buying.

Ethereum/Tether (ETHUSDT) opened at $4,104.6 on October 1, 2025, and closed at $4,327.23 by 12:00 ET the same day. The 24-hour range spanned from $4,092.1 to $4,340.6. Trading volume totaled 548,679.67 ETH, with notional turnover reaching $2.14 billion. Price formed a bullish breakout pattern from a defined consolidation zone.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour period saw a strong upward breakout from a descending triangle pattern formed between $4,104.6 and $4,167.2. A key support-turned-resistance level at $4,110.0 was decisively breached in the early hours of October 1, 2025. A large bullish engulfing candle at 20:00 ET marked a significant shift in sentiment. Later in the session, a doji near $4,340.6 indicated temporary consolidation after a sharp rally. These formations suggest increasing institutional or algorithmic buying pressure as price moved higher.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price traded well above the 20- and 50-period moving averages, with the 50-SMA at $4,136.0 and the 20-SMA at $4,156.0. On the daily chart, ETHUSDT closed above the 50- and 100-day moving averages (at $4,190.0 and $4,165.0, respectively), but remained below the 200-day SMA at $4,230.0. This suggests medium-term bullish momentum, but a retest of the 200-day SMA may be needed for full bullish confirmation.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned positive around 19:00 ET and crossed above the signal line at $120.0, indicating growing bullish momentum. The histogram showed expansion in line with the late-ET rally. RSI reached overbought territory (72) by 15:00 ET and remained elevated through the end of the reporting period. While this may signal a temporary pause or pullback, the bullish divergence in MACD and the absence of bearish candlestick signals suggest that the uptrend remains intact.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased dramatically as price moved above the upper Bollinger Band at $4,325.0 in the late ET session. The bands had previously been in a narrow contraction phase from 09:00 to 16:00 ET, suggesting a potential breakout scenario. Price closed near the upper band, indicating high volatility and strong buying interest. A retest of the lower Bollinger Band at $4,180.0 may be expected in the coming days as a potential consolidation level.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the 20:00–21:00 ET period, reaching 39,639.73 ETH and 55,818.29 ETH in two consecutive 15-minute intervals. This coincided with a $100 price move from $4,271.66 to $4,329.0. Notional turnover during these periods totaled over $170 million, indicating strong institutional or large-cap investor participation. Volume and price moved in confirmation of the breakout, rather than showing divergence.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci retracement levels played a role in the 24-hour move. The 61.8% level at $4,240.0 was cleared with ease, and the 78.6% level at $4,315.0 was tested and held before a final push to $4,340.6. For the daily chart, the 50% retracement level at $4,260.0 was a key psychological level that held during a minor pullback. A retest of the 78.6% level in the next 24 hours would be a likely near-term target.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong bullish breakout pattern and the confirmation by volume and momentum indicators, a potential backtesting strategy could be a breakout entry on the close above the 61.8% Fibonacci level, with a stop loss placed just below the 50% retracement level. A profit target at the 78.6% level or the nearest resistance from the previous consolidation zone appears valid. Such a strategy would align with the observed trend strength and could serve as a mechanical approach for short-term traders aiming to capture continuation moves in the ETHUSDT pair.