Ethereum/Tether Market Overview (ETHUSDT)

• Price opened at $4496.36, reached a high of $4504.22, and closed at $4482.80 with bearish momentum.
• Volatility spiked mid-day, but volume remained relatively stable without divergences.
• RSI showed oversold conditions in the latter half, hinting at potential short-term bounce.
• Bollinger Bands narrowed mid-session before expanding, suggesting a breakout attempt failed.
• Key support appears at $4475.00, with resistance at $4495.00 forming a critical short-term battleground.

Market Opening and Price Action

Ethereum/Tether (ETHUSDT) opened at $4496.36 on 2025-09-20 at 16:00 ET, reached an intraday high of $4504.22, and closed at $4482.80 at 12:00 ET the following day. The pair experienced a 24-hour volume of 87,658.88 ETH and a notional turnover of $392.87 million. Price action was bearish overall with a mid-day pullback and a late-session retest of key support levels.

Structure & Formations

Price displayed a bearish engulfing pattern around $4498–4494 during the early afternoon before a sharp decline confirmed bearish sentiment. A doji formed near $4480.19, signaling indecision after the initial drop. Key support appears at $4475.23, coinciding with a prior low and Fibonacci 61.8% level, while resistance is at $4494.55 from earlier in the session.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed below the price, confirming short-term bearish momentum. The 50-period MA sits at $4488.61, and the 20-period MA at $4486.75, both below the current close. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is at $4510.45 and the 200-period MA at $4498.32, with price trading below both, suggesting a continuation of the bearish trend.

MACD lines showed a negative crossover and remained in bear territory, with a histogram contraction indicating waning momentum. RSI dipped into oversold territory below 30 in the last four hours, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility increased in the late afternoon as Bollinger Bands expanded. Price closed near the lower band at $4482.80, indicating a possible test of support. The mid-band (20-period SMA) was at $4488.61, and the upper band was near $4500.00. A narrow contraction in the bands occurred mid-session, signaling a potential breakout attempt that failed.

Volume and Turnover

Volume showed a moderate increase in the 21:00–22:00 ET timeframe but failed to confirm a strong breakout. Turnover was highest around $4483.42–4480.19 in the early evening. A divergence between price and volume was not observed, suggesting that the bearish move was supported by sufficient liquidity. Notional turnover peaked at $12.8 million during the 19:00–20:00 ET period.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels were significant during the 15-minute session, especially the 61.8% retracement at $4475.23, which acted as a strong support. The 38.2% retracement at $4492.56 failed to hold, confirming the bearish bias. On the daily chart, a retest of the 61.8% retracement at $4485.00 may be a key near-term resistance level.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest could utilize a combination of RSI oversold levels and a break of the 50-period MA as a short-term reversal signal. Entering a long position when RSI dips below 30 and price closes above the 50-period MA could capture rebounds from key support levels. Exit the trade when RSI rises above 50 or when price closes below the 20-period MA, ensuring a balance between risk management and capturing countertrend momentum.