Ethereum/Tether Market Overview (ETHUSDT) – 2025-09-22

• ETH/USDT declined 9.6% in 24 hours, closing at 4167.88
• Key support tested near 4167.88, while resistance remains at 4192.44
• Volatility expanded mid-session, with a 12-hour high of 4497.0
• Volume surged near 40k at 06:15 ET as price fell
• MACD turned negative, confirming bearish momentum

Ethereum/Tether (ETHUSDT) opened at 4481.2 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET and closed at 4167.88 at the same time on 2025-09-22. The pair hit a 24-hour high of 4497.0 and a low of 4077.0. Total volume traded in the 24-hour period was 568,554.45 ETH, with notional turnover of $2,426,999,423.00. The bearish momentum continued for most of the session, with strong selling pressure evident in the latter half.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a bearish trend, characterized by a large bearish engulfing pattern from 06:15 ET as the pair fell from 4219.39 to 4154.99. A series of bearish hammers followed in the early morning, confirming bearish sentiment. A doji formed at 04:45 ET, near 4297.42, indicating indecision and a potential short-term consolidation. Key support levels were identified at 4166.7 (touched twice), while resistance was noted at 4192.44 (broken twice but retested).

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are in a clear bearish crossover, with price well below both. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA has crossed below the 200-period MA, signaling a longer-term bearish trend. The 100-period MA is also in bearish alignment, reinforcing the downward bias.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD is in bearish territory with a negative histogram, confirming the downward momentum. RSI stands at 28, indicating oversold conditions, though divergence between RSI and price in the last 4 hours suggests the move lower might not yet be over. The MACD crossed below the signal line at 06:15 ET, a bearish confirmation of the sell-off.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the 06:15–09:00 ET timeframe as the lower band dropped to 4077.0. Price closed near the lower band on the 24-hour chart, suggesting a potential continuation of the bearish move. The contraction before the expansion indicated a period of consolidation followed by a sharp breakout to the downside.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 06:15 ET to over 86k ETH traded as the price dropped to 4154.99, confirming the bearish breakout. Turnover also surged at this time, reaching a peak of $368 million. A divergence between volume and price was noted in the last 3 hours, with volume declining despite continued price movement lower. This suggests a potential exhaustion of sellers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 12-hour swing from 4497.0 to 4362.21, key levels at 38.2% (4427.3) and 61.8% (4391.3) were tested but failed to hold. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement level at 4300.0 and the 61.8% at 4240.0 are critical for potential short-term bounces.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described leverages a breakout of the lower Bollinger Band as a sell trigger, confirmed by a bearish MACD crossover and volume expansion. Given the current position near the lower band and the confirmation from technical indicators, this setup aligns with the conditions for the strategy. A backtest over a 6-month period on 15-minute ETH/USDT data would assess the effectiveness of this approach in volatile bear markets.