Ethereum/Tether Market Overview

• Ethereum/Tether (ETHUSDT) closed higher at $4,135.00 after opening at $3,995.92, with a 24-hour high of $4,220.89 and low of $3,995.92.
• Strong bullish momentum emerged in early morning trading, with a 2.5% price surge from 2 AM to 3 AM ET.
• Volume spiked above $170M during key breakout phases, showing strong participation in both buying and selling.
• Price action formed a bullish continuation pattern near $4,125, with 61.8% Fibonacci support confirming key levels.
• RSI hit overbought territory (75+) twice, suggesting caution ahead of a potential reversal or consolidation phase.

Opening and 24-Hour Summary

Ethereum/Tether (ETHUSDT) opened at $3,995.92 on 2025-10-12 at 12:00 ET and closed at $4,135.00 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-13. The pair reached a high of $4,220.89 and a low of $3,995.92 over the 24-hour period, posting a strong gain. Total volume reached 182,242.805 ETH, while notional turnover amounted to approximately $760.8 million, indicating active participation in both bullish and bearish phases.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed several key levels throughout the 24-hour window. A notable bullish engulfing pattern formed between 4:15 AM and 4:30 AM ET, with a strong close above the previous candle's high. This was followed by a series of higher highs and lower lows, indicating a continuation of bullish momentum. Support levels were reinforced at $4,125 and $4,081, which were tested and rebounded from multiple times, suggesting strong buying interest at these levels. A bearish divergence emerged near the 24-hour high, with lower lows and higher highs forming at $4,220 and $4,170, signaling caution in overbought conditions.

Moving Averages and MACD

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were in a bullish alignment, with price consistently above both. The 50-period MA acted as dynamic support near $4,125, confirming the strength of the bullish trend. The MACD histogram showed a consistent increase in momentum from late night through the early morning hours, peaking just before 3 AM ET. However, a contraction in the histogram from 6 AM onward suggests the potential for a pause or consolidation phase ahead.

Bollinger Bands and RSI

Bollinger Bands showed a period of tight consolidation in the early hours, with price trading within a narrow range. This was followed by a sharp expansion as price broke out above the upper band after 2 AM ET. Price remained above the upper band for several hours, indicating a period of strong volatility and bullish momentum. The RSI reached overbought territory (above 70) twice during the period, peaking at 75.5 and 74.2, suggesting a potential pullback could be on the horizon. A bearish divergence in the RSI between 6:30 AM and 8:30 AM ET further signals caution.

Volume & Turnover

Volume activity was particularly strong during key breakout moments, with a peak of 190,450.108 ETH at 9:00 PM ET when price broke above $4,130. This was accompanied by a surge in notional turnover, indicating strong institutional and retail participation. However, volume began to taper off after 9:30 PM ET, suggesting the momentum may be losing steam. Divergence between volume and price action became evident in the final hours, with price reaching new highs on lower volume, hinting at a possible exhaustion phase.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from $3,995.92 to $4,220.89, key levels emerged at $4,136.24 (38.2%), $4,107.05 (50%), and $4,080.05 (61.8%). Price found support at the 61.8% level on two occasions, indicating a strong psychological floor. On the daily chart, a larger Fibonacci sequence from the October 8 low at $3,920 to the October 12 high at $4,220 showed a critical retracement at $4,060 (38.2%), which was also a key support level during the 24-hour period.

Backtest Hypothesis

To evaluate the effectiveness of a strategy based on today's patterns, a backtest could focus on a systematic approach that leverages the observed RSI overbought signals and Fibonacci support levels. A practical setup would involve entering long positions when the RSI crosses 75 (indicating overbought conditions) and setting a sell target at the most recent 61.8% Fibonacci level. Stops could be placed below the 50% level to manage risk. This method would allow for capturing bullish momentum while controlling downside exposure during potential pullbacks.