Ethereum/Tether Market Overview

• ETHUSDT declined 4.6% over 24 hours, closing at 4415.0 after peaking at 4547.0 and falling to 4291.82.
• Volume surged to 391979.98k and turnover hit $1.73B, indicating strong bearish conviction in late-session selling.
• A bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 4547.0, followed by a breakdown below key 4500.0 and 4450.0 levels.
• RSI oversold conditions and Bollinger contraction signal potential short-term stabilization or a rebound.
• Divergence between price and volume suggests fading momentum in the downward move.

Ethereum/Tether (ETHUSDT) opened at 4440.3 on 2025-10-08 12:00 ET and closed at 4415.0 as of 2025-10-09 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 4547.0 and a low of 4291.82, recording a 24-hour trading volume of 391979.98k and a notional turnover of $1.73B. The bearish bias has intensified, with price failing to hold above 4500.0 and breaking key 4450.0 support.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern at the 4547.0 high, signaling a reversal to the downside. The breakdown below 4500.0 and 4450.0 confirmed a shift in momentum, with 4430.0 becoming a key short-term support. A potential test of 4400.0 could follow, with a larger 4300.0-4350.0 range likely to absorb any further selloff. A bullish reversal is possible near 4350.0, but only if volume confirms strength.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, ETHUSDT closed below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing bearish sentiment. The 50-period SMA currently resides at around 4470.0, while the 100-period and 200-period SMAs on the daily chart remain above 4450.0 and 4500.0, respectively. The price has moved into bearish territory relative to its longer-term trend, with 4400.0-4420.0 likely to be the new equilibrium range.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram has turned negative, with the fast line dipping below the signal line, suggesting continued selling pressure. RSI stands at 29.1 on the daily chart, indicating oversold conditions that may not guarantee a rebound, but could signal a short-term bounce. However, divergence between RSI and price suggests that the bearish move may not yet be exhausted.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have contracted significantly over the past 6–8 hours, with price now testing the lower band. This indicates a potential breakout or rebound from 4300.0-4400.0. Volatility is expected to increase in the next 24 hours, with a possible test of the upper band at 4480.0-4500.0 if buying interest returns.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged above 9000k in multiple hourly intervals during the late session, particularly between 01:30 ET and 03:30 ET, confirming bearish control. The notional turnover exceeded $1.73B, indicating strong liquidity and investor participation in the decline. However, declining volume in the last 6 hours suggests waning bearish momentum, which could lead to consolidation or a rebound.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements on the key 4291.82–4547.0 swing indicate 38.2% at 4425.0 and 61.8% at 4362.5. Price is currently hovering near the 4425.0 level. A break below 4362.5 would suggest deeper bearish sentiment, while a retest of 4425.0 could lead to a consolidation phase before another attempt at 4450.0.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves entering short positions when ETHUSDT closes below a 20-period SMA on the 15-minute chart, accompanied by a MACD crossover and a RSI reading above 70. A stop-loss is placed above the most recent swing high, with a target set at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Based on today’s move, such a strategy would have triggered a short entry near 4470.0 with a stop above 4495.0 and a target near 4415.0, aligning with the observed price action and volatility. The high volume and divergence between price and volume suggest the strategy could remain valid for the next 24 hours, with confirmation expected if the price stays below 4450.0 and 4470.0.