Ethereum/Tether (ETHUSDT) Market Overview: Volatile 24-Hour Session, Key Support Tested

• Ethereum/Tether (ETHUSDT) closed lower at $4,166.17 amid a volatile 24-hour session, testing key support levels.
• A sharp selloff emerged after the 4:15 AM ET candle broke below $4,160, signaling bearish momentum.
• Elevated volume during the drop suggests increased bear pressure, with turnover surging as price dipped.
• RSI entered oversold territory near 28, indicating a potential short-term rebound may be on the horizon.
• Bollinger Bands constricted in the early morning before a sharp expansion aligned with the selloff.

The Ethereum/Tether (ETHUSDT) pair opened at $4,187.38 on 2025-09-23 12:00 ET and closed at $4,166.17 on 2025-09-24 12:00 ET, with a daily high of $4,206.99 and a low of $4,073.74. Total volume for the 24-hour window was approximately 155,778.99 ETH, while total turnover reached $658,183,469.24. The session saw a distinct bearish shift after the 4:15 AM ET candle, which closed at $4,163.9 and broke through a key support level, triggering further selling.

Price action over the 24-hour period showed a bearish bias, with a clear breakdown from key intraday resistance levels. On the 15-minute chart, Ethereum formed a bearish engulfing pattern at the top of the session, followed by a long bearish shadow during the morning Asian session. The 50-period moving average on the 15-minute timeframe was breached multiple times during the selloff, confirming a shift in momentum. The 20-period moving average initially acted as a minor support but failed to hold as volume intensified.

The MACD crossed below the signal line early in the session, with a bearish divergence between price and momentum forming toward the end of the trading day. The RSI dropped into oversold territory by late morning, reaching as low as 28, suggesting a potential bounce could be in play. Bollinger Bands, which had been in a period of low volatility contraction from 4:00 AM to 4:15 AM ET, expanded sharply with the selloff, confirming the bearish breakout. The price closed near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating a test of the short-term volatility floor.

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the session’s high of $4,206.99 to the low of $4,073.74 show the price found initial support at the 38.2% level around $4,133.95 and then at the 61.8% level near $4,109.50. These levels failed to hold, and the price continued downward, finding more significant resistance between $4,150 and $4,160. The 15-minute swing from the high of $4,206.99 to the low of $4,073.74 highlights a 2.7% move, with volume intensifying at the key Fibonacci levels. The 61.8% retracement at $4,109.50 and the 78.6% at $4,091.33 may now become important watchpoints for potential reversal or continuation.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could be designed around identifying bearish engulfing patterns on the 15-minute timeframe, particularly when the MACD is in bearish crossover and RSI approaches overbought or oversold levels. Given the recent move, a strategy could be built to trigger a short position when a bearish engulfing candle forms, confirmed by a closing below the 50-period moving average. The target for exit could be aligned with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement as a profit target and the 78.6% as a stop-loss or extended short target. A risk caveat remains that if Ethereum breaks above the 61.8% retracement at $4,109.50, a reversal could negate the short bias.