Ethereum Surpasses 40% Weekly Transaction Surge Amid Market Consolidation

Ethereum’s on-chain data reflects a growing demand for the network as a settlement layer, with 14 million transactions recorded in the last week. This rise is notable despite a decline in DEX volumes since late September, showing that users are increasingly leveraging Ethereum for cross-chain and payment purposes according to analysis. Analysts note that the surge in transaction volume is a bullish sign for the token, particularly when viewed alongside increased open interest in futures markets.

Ethereum has been trading within a range of $2,800–$3,300 since early 2026, indicating limited short-term momentum and mixed institutional flows as reported. Institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, and protocol upgrades are seen as key long-term drivers for the token, despite current market conditions . The price remains constrained by a dense band of moving averages, and a clean break above this resistance is needed to unlock potential for a significant upward move according to technical analysis.

What Drives the Current Ethereum Transaction Surge?

The 40% increase in Ethereum’s weekly transactions is primarily driven by on-chain asset transfers rather than DeFi activity. This trend highlights growing utility for Ethereum as a settlement and cross-chain platform according to market analysis. Analysts suggest that the surge in transaction volume reflects underlying demand for the network, with users transacting more frequently for payments and asset management as data shows. On-chain data also shows a steady increase in active addresses and transaction counts, reinforcing this narrative according to technical indicators.

This shift in usage patterns is not without precedent. Similar trends have been observed during previous bullish cycles, where increased on-chain activity preceded price surges. Ethereum’s scalability improvements, such as the Dencun upgrades, have further enhanced its role as a foundational infrastructure for decentralized applications and tokenized assets .

What Are the Risks to Ethereum’s Current Momentum?

Despite the increase in transaction volume, Ethereum remains range-bound near $3,000, constrained by macroeconomic uncertainty and mixed institutional flows as analysis indicates. A breakdown below the $2,800 support level could lead to a 42% drop to $1,600, though historical patterns suggest bear traps might result in higher highs according to technical forecasts.

Institutional accumulation has occurred alongside retail selling, a pattern historically linked to price rebounds . However, the broader market environment remains cautious, with many traders adopting a wait-and-see stance until macro conditions stabilize . Analysts caution that Ethereum may not reach new highs in 2026 without strong macro support or a breakout in risk assets according to market commentary.

What Price Targets Are Analysts Watching?

If Ethereum can break through the moving average resistance zone currently capping its price, it could target $3,600–$3,800 next according to technical analysis. A sustained move above $3,200 might trigger a return to bullish momentum, with potential upside toward $4,000 if buying pressure holds as forecasts suggest.

Longer-term projections for Ethereum suggest a potential price target of $5,664.63, contingent on breaking through key resistance levels according to institutional analysis. Institutional adoption and regulatory clarity are seen as critical enablers for this path, with Ethereum’s role in tokenization and real-world asset (RWA) adoption offering additional upside .

A breakdown below $2,700–$2,800 would likely trigger a deeper correction, though staking activity and reduced circulating supply may provide some floor support as market data shows.