Ethereum Surges 64% in 19 Days, Driven by ETF Flows and Upgrade Hype

Coin WorldMonday, May 12, 2025 3:15 am ET
1min read

Ethereum's recent price surge has sparked both optimism and concern among traders and analysts. The cryptocurrency has rallied 64% in the past 19 days, reaching near the $2.8K mark. This upward trajectory has been fueled by strong gains and heightened spot ETF flows, indicating increased demand and accumulation. The falling exchange reserve further supports this trend, suggesting that more ETH is being held by investors rather than being traded on exchanges.

The announcement of the Pectra upgrade has also contributed to the bullish sentiment, attracting not only retail staking participants but also institutional investors. This shift in staking inflow trends points towards increased confidence in the post-upgrade Ethereum ecosystem. The increased spot ETH ETF flows are an early sign of a bullish phase, with ETH rallying 12% in a single day from $1,580 to $1,770 almost three weeks ago. However, the upward momentum has since slowed down, raising questions about whether this confidence will translate into sustained gains or if short-term holders will realize profits and halt the move.

The percent supply in profit metric has fallen to lows not seen since November 2022, indicating that a significant portion of ETH holders are currently in profit. This metric has surged higher over the past three weeks but has not yet reached the 95% threshold that indicates overheated conditions. This suggests that while there is potential for profit-taking, the current rally is organic and driven by spot demand, which lessens the threat from short-term holders realizing profits.

The 6-month ETH liquidation heatmap shows that the $2,718 and $2,878 levels are the next sizeable liquidity pockets that could attract prices higher. This aligns with the 3-day chart, which shows a supply zone at $2,750-$2,820. This zone presents a bullish price target for traders to take profits at, but it is unclear if ETH could immediately push higher and go above $3K. The price action evidence suggests that a few weeks of consolidation beneath $3K might be necessary to build the ammunition for the next move.

In conclusion, while Ethereum's recent price surge has been impressive, there are concerns about profit-taking activity that could halt the upward momentum. However, the organic nature of the current rally and the increased confidence in the post-upgrade Ethereum ecosystem suggest that there is still potential for further gains. It remains to be seen whether ETH will continue to push higher or if short-term holders will realize profits and cause a temporary halt in the move.